We are now less than a week away from the Cheltenham Festival and it is time to get those betting hats on. GG’s analyst Joe Napier has delved into the trends for all-day one races. Check these out below, alongside an exclusive bet365 offer where you can get £50 in Free Bets when you bet £10.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
Age
Appreciate It was the first seven-year-old to win the Supreme for 13 years when roaring home in front last season. In the 25 runnings since 1996, only three horses aged seven and up have won, with the majority aged five or six. The sole four-year-old to take advantage of their weight allowance in that time was Hors La Loi III in 1999, a future Champion Hurdler. All told, nine of the last ten winners have been aged five or six.
Price
Despite this often feeling like a race to kickstart those favourite ACCAs, only three market leaders have won the Supreme in the past decade, and only two of those were outright favourites. Again, Appreciate It was one of those. Only two horses priced into double figures have won in that span though, so being towards the head of the market is still important.
GB or Ireland
Willie Mullins is the obvious man to follow, with five wins in the past decade. Similarly, though Ruby Walsh was aboard for the first four of those, that is just as much of a pointer towards success for Paul Townend now he is the stable’s number one. Overall, it’s 6-4 in favour of Ireland here.
Form
Labaik may be an anomaly for many of these trends. He is the only winner of the Supreme to have not won on his previous start. All nine others had taken victory on their previous start. Unbeaten records are usually a key signal too, with half of the ten victors yet to have tasted defeat over hurdles (six if you ignore Shishkin’s fall on debut).
Festival
Three of the past ten winners had run in the Champion Bumper at the previous season’s Festival, the only realistic contest they could have run in previously. Of those, only Champagne Fever won that race, with both Cinders And Ashes and Appreciate It beaten. It is certainly not a key component of a Supreme winner and plenty more have ended up defeated.
Prep
Nine of the last ten winners had run in Pattern company (eight winning, Labaik again the exception), while interestingly only Altior had won a relatively run-of-the-mill novice event before trouncing his rivals at Cheltenham. Five of those nine had won a Grade 1 prior, while three had taken part in a Grade 2. Shishkin won at Listed level. While the Betfair Hurdle is often seen as a good prep for this contest, none graduated from that handicap to success here. All ten had run in the same calendar year, ensuring no longer than a two-and-a-half month break.
Supreme Verdict
All six of the above boxes are ticked by DYSART DYNAMO. A Graded winner last time out, he will represent a lethal combination in the race, is a single-figure price, is unbeaten this season and is in the sweet spot in terms of age. As a representative of the second most successful stable in recent years, Constitution Hill is next best, as he scored at Grade 1 level in the Tolworth Hurdle.
ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
Age
Every winner in the previous ten years has been aged six or seven, with Sizing Europe the last to break that mould in 2010. No horse aged five has won since Voy Por Ustedes in 2006 and he had a weight allowance which that age group is no longer entitled to.
Price
There have been seven odds-on favourites in the last decade and all have obliged for short-price backers. However, in the three years in which the favourite started odds against, they were beaten. It looks almost certain that the favourite will be greatest than an even money shot this season, so backers beware.
GB or Ireland
Only four trainers have won this prize since 2012 and it would have been just three but for Western Warhorse’s phenomenal triumph in 2014 (sorry everyone). Messieurs Mullins and Henderson have four each, creating more or less a duopoly that is evenly split between Great Britain and Ireland. Henderson has no entries, however, so Mullins and Townend get the verdict of the trends gods once more.
Form
All ten had won on their previous start before the Arkle, while six had gone unbeaten through the season to that point. That increases to seven if excusing Un De Sceaux’s fall on his chase debut and eight out of ten if you only take Western Warhorse’s chase starts, as he had been beaten twice over hurdles.
Festival
Seven of the decade’s winners had run at the Festival the previous year, though only four of them successfully. Victory at the previous year’s Festival is not a prerequisite, but a run is certainly preferable.
Prep
Only Western Warhorse and Duc Des Genievres had run below Graded level on their previous start before the Arkle. All of Willie Mullins’ other winners had taken a Grade 1, while all of Nicky Henderson’s plus Put The Kettle On, had won a Grade 2. Put The Kettle On and Simonsig were the only two whose previous run had come prior to the turn of the year, with the mare overcoming an unusually long 114-day absence.
Arkle Verdict
Due to the likelihood of the favourite starting odds against, it’s worth treading carefully when it comes to Edwardstone. Any significant change that made BLUE LORD favourite would be slightly unnerving too, but he meticulously fits every other criteria. The other intriguing option on trends may be stablemate Ciel De Neige if he comes here, as his only fault according to this method is that he did not prep in Graded company.
ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
Age
You don’t usually see horses aged ten or over win any race at the Cheltenham Festival, but Vintage Clouds managed success here at the age of 11 last season. From 2012 onwards, eight of the ten winners have been aged between seven and nine.
Price
Always more interesting in terms of the handicaps, only one favourite has won in the last ten renewals. It would be unfair to judge the market leader on that given the less predictable nature of the handicaps and the predominant takeaway is that only two horses have been priced above 14/1. Once more, it pays to at least be slightly fancied.
GB or Ireland
Jonjo O’Neill and Richie McLernon have teamed up for two recent victories, though neither since 2014. There is no general trends of success for any particular individual or combination and it is better to look at the more open contests from a national perspective. Despite recent dominance from the Irish, Dun Doire was their last winner of the race way back in 2006.
Form
Recent form is not key to success in this handicap, with five of the last ten winners finishing unplaced in their previous start. Three horses had won on their previous start before winning again here, while two had placed, including last year’s hero. More important is to simply have won earlier in the season: seven of the last ten had at least one victory to their name.
Festival
A past run at the Cheltenham Festival has generally helped winners of this race. Eight of them had experienced at least one Festival contest, in the past, though only three of them had had a previous run in this exact contest and one of those was Un Temps Pour Tout, the winner of back-to-back renewals in 2016 and 2017. A winning start at Cheltenham is less key, with only him and Holywell, in the previous season’s Pertemps Final, prior winners at the Festival before their successes in this.
Weight/Rating
The earliest two winners in the last decade can be discounted from a trends point of view as, but for a small field last year, neither of their ratings would have got them into any of the last five editions. Class has often told since 2014, with five winners carrying more than 11st and each of those with a rating of 145 or above.
Ultima Verdict
Three horses survive the punishing knockouts of the themes above. Threeunderthrufive will likely have a different target, but he is one, while the other two are DOES HE KNOW and IMPERIAL ALCAZAR. Both hit the sweet spot for ratings, seasonal form, runs at the Festival and age, as well as being trained in Britain.
CHAMPION HURDLE
Age/Sex
This remains a young horse’s race, with Hurricane Fly the oldest recent victor at the age of nine. Seven out of the ten winners have been aged either six or seven, with sole representatives aged five and eight. An added qualifier here is the success of mares in this championship race. The other three championships combined have had one winner in their previous 30 runnings combined. In the Champion Hurdle, mares are three from the last six.
Price
Six out of the last ten favourites have been crowned in glory by 3.40pm, while only two winners have gone off at greater than 10/1. No winner has been outside the first five in the betting.
GB or Ireland
It is 6-4 to Ireland here as well, despite Nicky Henderson having won three of the last five renewals. There is not enough between the nations historically to trend either way however.
Form
Eight of the last ten winners had won their previous start before the Festival, including all of the last seven. All ten had won at least one race that term, while seven had won a Grade 1 at some point that season.
Festival
Only Espoir D’Allen had not appeared at a previous Cheltenham Festival when hacking up in 2019. All of the other nine had, though intriguingly, only four of them had been successful at the meeting previously, though Annie Power almost certainly would have been but for a fall. Four had suffered defeat in one of the novice hurdles the season before.
Prep
A run in any of the Irish Champion Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle or Contenders Hurdle would be the ideal prep, with those three races having hosted nine of the ten winners. Only Buveur D’Air, for both his triumphs and Espoir D’Allen had run outside Grade 1 company on their final starts before the meeting.
Champion Hurdle Verdict
None of the first six in the betting are aged six or seven, so if age is your key criteria, then you’ll be looking for an each-way shot at a massive price. Using more of a box-ticking approach reveals both mares, HONEYSUCKLE and Epatante. If you are swayed more by the idea that the first five in the market is the key, then Epatante’s price might appeal, but with favourites having a good strike rate in the race, Honeysuckle is difficult to oppose.
MARES’ HURDLE
Age
Quevega’s six successive triumphs in the race make for an awkward disturbance to this trend. As such, looking at the last seven runnings since she took her final crown, five winners have been aged seven, with no heroine aged older.
Price
When Willie Mullins was so dominant with mares such as Quevega and Annie Power, it must have felt like this race was won by the favourite every year. But Annie Power’s fall (sorry again!) in 2015 has ensured only one favourite has won in seven runnings, including in none of the last five. Every winner apart from the first, Whiteoak, has been in the first four in the betting.
GB or Ireland
In the 14 editions of the Mares’ Hurdle only two have been won by the Brits: the inaugural running and Roksana’s inheritance of the race in 2019 (I should really stop bringing up bad memories shouldn’t I?)
Form
Taking Quevega aside once more, only Roksana had failed to win at some point during the season. Indeed, only Apple’s Jade joins her in having failed to win her previous start before being successful in this race.
Festival
Quevega is the only winner who had previously won at the Festival. And then she did it again. And again. And again. Glens Melody, Apple’s Jade and Black Tears are the only trio aside from her to have experienced the Festival before winning, though all of them had done so without success. The other five were making their Festival debuts.
Prep
Famously, Quevega was always making her reappearance in this contest. There really is no default preparation for this contest, with Roksana having come here after just one run, Black Tears changing hands to Denise Foster within days of her last success prior to Cheltenham, Benie Des Dieux reverting from chasing and Whiteoak coming out of novice company. If there is a method which has not been applied, maybe that’s the key!
Mares’ Hurdle Verdict
Telmesomethinggirl would have to defy a remarkable imbalance insofar as no winner of the Mares’ Hurdle, apart from Quevega, has ever won a previous Cheltenham Festival contest. She has also failed to win this season and so preference is for ROYAL KAHALA, who was disappointing in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle last season but could easily put that behind her given the history of this contest.
BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE
Price
Time to start sweating if you’re on Gaelic Warrior at 3/1 or lower. Seven of the last ten winners have come from the deeper reaches of the market at 25/1 or higher. Last year’s winner, Jeff Kidder, trumped the lot at 80/1. The other three have all been priced in single figures, with Band Of Outlaws the only favourite.
GB or Ireland
It is officially 5-5 in the last decade, but the last four have gone the way of Ireland and this race is strongly trending in that direction.
Form
Only three of the last ten winners of this contest had won on their previous start. You are much more likely to find a winner who has finished down the field or well-beaten whose mark may have gone under the radar. Nevertheless, nine of the ten had won a race at some point that season.
Prep
Diego Du Charmil offers up encouragement for any backer of Gaelic Warrior. He too had arrived from France without quite winning, but duly put that behind him to win for Paul Nicholls. That remains unusual though and it is more worth noting that five of the ten winners had competed in an open Graded contest at some point during the season.
Weight/Rating
Due to the relatively condensed nature of juvenile ratings, there is little to go on in terms of weights and ratings. If anything, you could look at the last three years as anomalous, with the seven runnings between 2012-2018 yielding winners who were all rated between 127 and 134.
Boodles Handicap Verdict
Diego Du Charmil’s win in 2016 offers hope for the favourite Gaelic Warrior who is a fascinating contender. Nevertheless, it is unsurprising that a horse having his stable debut without having won a race does not fit many trends. The two who do more than any other are WHITE PEPPER and BEN SIEGEL who are difficult to split and both worth chancing at substantial prices.
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
Age
This is the one race on day one in which it is difficult to recommend a particular age group. However, only Minella Rocco has won at the age of six, so it is certainly preferable to be seven or older.
Price
Galvin ended up drifting out of favouritism on the day, which has ensured that no market leader has returned victorious in the last eight runnings. Only the magnificent Tiger Roll was outside of the first five in the betting, however, with seven of the last ten winners starting at single-figure prices.
GB or Ireland
It’s 6-4 to Ireland and once again the trend is strongly against the hosts. Four of the last five trophies have gone back across the Irish Sea, with Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins dominating.
Form
Galvin ended a six year run of horses who had failed to win on their previous start who subsequently won the National Hunt Chase. Curiously, two of the last four winners had fallen or unseated during their previous runs. However, every winner between 2012 and 2014 had won in the build up to Cheltenham.
Festival
Six of the last ten winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival in the past, although only four of those had done so the season before. Remarkably, Tiger Roll did not run at the 2016 Festival, the season before he won the National Hunt Chase, and Rathvinden was having his first Cheltenham start in four years when successful in 2018. Only Tiger Roll was a previous Festival winner.
Prep
Three of the last five winners had had a break of at least 100 days since their previous start, including the last two. There isn’t a single horse among the entries for whom that will be the case, but perhaps a greater break than normal would be preferred.
National Hunt Chase Verdict
It awaits to be seen whether FURY ROAD will contest the National Hunt Chase, especially as the same connections may well have either or both of Run Wild Fred and Farouk D’alene involved. Nonetheless, he arrives well enough fancied, with a big victory to his name this season, though not last time out. He was also unsuccessful at last year’s Festival but could make amends over a test that should suit.