It is time for Thursday’s races to come under the microscope. Joe Napier has had a look into the stats and trends to find the winners who would fit the bill on day three. Find out the box-tickers here, alongside 888‘s new customer offer of Bet £10 Get £50 In Bonuses, perfectly in time for Cheltenham.
TURNERS NOVICES’ CHASE
Age
Introduced to the Festival in 2011, ten of the 11 winners of the newly-named Turners Novices’ Chase have been aged either six or seven. The only exception was Samcro in 2020, aged eight. As such, this looks to be a race to favour embryonic chasers who have shown early ability over larger obstacles.
Price
While only four outright or joint favourites have won in the 11 renewals of the race, four more have been priced at 4/1 or lower atop that. Last season, Envoi Allen was the first ever odds-on favourite in the race, but he may well be joined by one of Bob Olinger or Galopin Des Champs with that honour. Only one horse has ever won this at a double-figure price and only two have been outside the top three in the betting.
GB or Ireland
The overall majority is strongly in favour of Irish trained horses. They have won eight of the 11 runnings, although unusually it was one of the few races that went the way of the Brits last season. Six of those eight Irish wins have been courtesy of Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins.
Form
Eight of the 11 winners have arrived off the back of victories, with only inaugural winner Noble Prince, Black Hercules (after a fall) and Samcro having not won on their previous start. A word of caution is sounded more about each winner’s form subsequently. The jury is still out on Chantry House, but the five previous winners between 2016 to 2020 never consistently hit the top in open company. Defi Du Seuil is a possible exception, but he also suffered a major drop off in form.
Festival
All 11 winners of this race had run in a hurdling contest at a previous Cheltenham Festival, with Samcro the only one who had not done so in the season immediately prior. This is a remarkably sustained record after 11 runnings. Five of them had also won at a previous Festival, though the other six, Chantry House aside, had all been fairly well beaten on their last Festival experience.
Prep
Chantry House became the first winner of the Turners to have not prepped in graded company on their previous start. Only four of the other ten had done so in a Grade 1, however, so top level preparation is not a must. Only Gordon Elliott’s pair of Shattered Love and Samcro had not run in the same calendar year, while taking an average of the number of days between runs, a 51-day gap would hit the sweet spot.
Turners Verdict
That sweet spot between runs is how we land on our verdict. Both BOB OLINGER and Galopin Des Champs immaculately match all the criteria above, as if it was not hard enough to choose between the two anyway. However, Bob’s 60-day gap since his last victory is slightly closer to the mean average than Galopin Des Champs’ 39-day break and given how hard it is to split them, there is the narrowest swing in favour of Henry De Bromhead’s charge.
PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE
Age
Four six-year-olds and four eight-year-olds have won the Pertemps Final in the last ten renewals, with Buena Vista the last horse older than that upper band to win. However, he is one of only two horses aged ten or older, while Delta Work was very unusually prodigious at the age of five in 2018. Despite being a staying race, the early to mid age group is the one to focus on.
Price
Backing the favourites would have brought you a very narrow profit in the last decade, with two successful at 9/2 and 4/1. However, this is not a handicap that has allowed for many big surprises, with only Holywell in 2013 starting at a longer price than 14/1 in recent years.
GB or Ireland
Every winner between 2007 and 2015 was trained on British shores, but there could not have been a greater sea change since. Every winner since 2016 has hailed from an Irish yard. It’s strongly advised to continue following that trend.
Form/Qualifying
This is often a very difficult race to gauge in terms of form, with protection of marks at a premium in terms of qualifying for the race. Of the last ten winners, six had been fourth in a qualifier for this, with Pat Kelly’s two winners, Mall Dini and Presenting Percy, having finished third and fifth in other qualifiers respectively. Only Fingal Bay won his qualifier before taking this, with Holywell the only other to finish in the top two of a qualifier. Remarkably, Presenting Percy, having qualified with less than minor honours, then won a different handicap in preparation for this.
Festival
Previous Festival experience is not a positive for the Pertemps Final. Only Sire Du Berlais, who had finished fourth in a Martin Pipe before both his victories, and Cape Tribulation in 2012, had run at a previous Festival before in their entire careers. Coming to Cheltenham as a fresh experience is therefore the thing to take away.
Prep
All must have of course run in a qualifier, but the rush to do so has generally ensured most winners have come here fighting fit from racing. Seven of the ten most recent victors had run in February, with the majority of those having been off for less than a month before coming to Cheltenham. Only Sire Du Berlais and Holywell had been off for greater than 50 days prior to their three triumphs.
Pertemps Final Verdict
The one who comes out on top across all metrics is DUNBOYNE. Without any previous Cheltenham experience, he is in the middle of the ideal age group, did not overperform in his qualifying race (finished 5th), hails from an Irish yard with a good record in the race and had a run in February to keep him sharp. It is no surprise he is well fancied.
RYANAIR CHASE
Age
There was more variety in the infant days of the Ryanair Chase, with a six-year-old and three ten-year-olds triumphant between 2005 and 2011. However, the race has fallen into much more of a pattern in the last decade, with all of the last ten winners aged between seven and nine.
Price
Five victorious market leaders in the last ten years makes the Ryanair an extremely profitable race for favourite backers. You would have made a 6.25-point profit for a level stake in that time. Only Uxizandre came from the left field, with the nine other winners all starting within the first three of the betting. However, things are not all rosy for Allaho: the only odds-on favourite, Un De Sceaux, was beaten having won comfortably the previous year. Take heed before piling on aimlessly.
GB or Ireland
As he has often been within the last few seasons, Frodon is a sole bastion of British hope in the Ryanair roll call. Five of the last six winners aside from him have been trained in Ireland, four of those by Willie Mullins, and is another trophy firmly in the grasp of the Irish.
Form
The last ten winners are split exactly half and half in terms of those who arrived off the back of a victory. It is clearly not a fundamental asset, though eight of the ten had won at some point that season, with only Dynaste and Balko Des Flos failing to have done so prior.
Festival
Only three of the last ten winners had a previous Cheltenham Festival victory under their belt, but the trend of the last three heroes is that of near misses. All of Frodon, Min and Allaho had run at multiple Festivals without success before finally getting off the mark in this race. Experience of the course and occasion is key though, with all ten having run at a previous Festival in some capacity.
Prep
Despite being run over an intermediate trip, Allaho was the first winner for eight years to have in a middle distance race immediately before the Ryanair Chase. Every winner between 2014 and 2020 had run over either 2m1f or shorter, or 3m or further. Sometimes, the change in distance has worked wonders for those who have been racing over shorter or further.
Ryanair Verdict
Of those likely to run, the top three in the market would probably be ALLAHO, Shan Blue and Conflated. Though he ran over roughly the Ryanair trip last time, it worked for Allaho last season. Un De Sceaux casts somewhat of a shadow as a previous winner who was then beaten at odds-on, but there is so much else in the eight-year-olds favour. Previous course form counts against Conflated, while Shan Blue has not registered a victory this season.
STAYERS’ HURDLE
Age
You have to go back to 1986 for any winner of the Stayers’ Hurdle aged ten or above. Every winner since 2012 has been aged between six and nine, though even nine-year-olds have struggled recently, with no winner since 2013.
Price
No championship race has the propensity for an upset quite like the Stayers’ Hurdle. Three favourites winning in the last decade ensures that the average percentage of winning favourites at the Festival is maintained in this race. However, half of the decade’s winners have started at 10/1 or higher, with seven starting at bigger than 7/1. That said, only one, Lisnagar Oscar, has been bigger than 14/1.
GB or Ireland
Going back to 2012, the Stayers’ Hurdle is 6-4 in Britain’s favour, so while Ireland have taken three of the last five, the overall trend here is that it cold provide a beacon of hope for the Brits.
Form
All told, six of the last 10 winners have arrived off the back of a victory, but four of the last seven had not won on their previous start. Eight had finished in the top three on their last start, so a modicum of form is certainly preferable, and Nichols Canyon would have made that nine but for a final flight fall in the Irish Champion Hurdle in 2017.
Festival
Only Big Buck’s and Penhill could claim a prior triumph at the Cheltenham Festival before their recent Festival successes, though Big Buck’s Festival victories were all in this race. Every winner between 2018 and 2020 had run in the previous year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, while Nichols Canyon, Cole Harden and Solwhit had all been well beaten in completely different races at previous Festivals.
Prep
The Cleeve Hurdle provides the best preparation in recent history, with five of the past ten having warmed up in the traditional January trial. Solwhit, More Of That and Nichols Canyon were making big steps up in trip to win this race for the first time over three miles, while Leopardstown’s three-mile Christmas Hurdle has only provided one winner in that time, in last year’s hero Flooring Porter.
Stayers’ Hurdle Verdict
The entries might tell us more, but THYME HILL could be a big player after returning to form last time out behind Champ. He was a shade disappointing on his seasonal outing in France but has smart form to his name, including at Cheltenham at the Festival, is the right age and price, while being trained in Britain is no bad thing in this race.
PADDY POWER PLATE
Age
2011 was the last time a horse aged ten or above won this handicap chase, but there is no determined ideal otherwise. Horses of every age between six and nine have won at least two editions each in the last decade.
Price
Between 2013 and 2017, this was a race to stay away from the market leaders, with all five winners starting between 12 and 50/1. However, the last four renewals have changed that markedly. No horse has won at a price longer than 5/1, so if there ends up being a strong favourite in the race, it is well worth respecting their chances.
GB or Ireland
It is 6-4 to Britain in the last decade, but 4-2 to Ireland in the last six years. Either way, there is not a strong inkling towards either nation regarding this contest.
Form
Maybe slightly unusually for a handicap, four of the last six winners were landing back-to-back victories when winning in this contest. That also includes the last three winners, all of whom had landed a handicap on their previous start, although The Shunter had done so over hurdles instead of fences.
Festival
It pays to be coming in cold to the Cheltenham Festival with regards to the Plate. Only Carrickboy and Simply The Betts had been to the Festival in March before winning this race and neither had got close to victory. The other eight were all making their Cheltenham Festival debuts.
Prep
Winning a handicap has been a good sign in the last three renewals, with Siruh Du Lac and Simply The Betts doing so over course and distance before winning this race. The last six winners have either won a handicap or competed in a Graded novice event, which is what Road To Respect and The Storyteller had done before winning this race.
Plate Verdict
There are a few outside of the weights who fit the bill, but it would be a nervous wait to see if they get in. If Celebre D’Allen were to shorten markedly, he would be worth respecting given the recent record of those starting 5/1 or shorter. However, the market looks more open this year and Alan King’s THE GLANCING QUEEN fits the bill otherwise. He is coming in off the back of a decent second behind a useful Grade 1 performer, which is a good sign for him in terms of form and preparation. Although he has previous form at the Festival as a hurdler, the mare has been well supported and is a single-figure price.
MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
Age
There have only been six renewals of this race, but all six winners have been aged either five or six.
Price
Three Willie Mullins trained favourites were successful in the first three runnings of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. However, no market leader has won in the last three. Five of the six winners have started at no greater than 5/1 though, with 50/1 shot Eglantine Du Seuil looking a complete outlier in that respect.
GB or Ireland
An Irish trained horse has won all six editions. End of story.
Form
Only three of the six had won last time out, which is quite unusual for a Graded novice event and Concertista had yet to win at all before storming home in 2020. Indeed, none of the last three were arriving on the back of a victory.
Festival/Experience
None of the winners had contested the Champion Bumper previously, but two had been to the Festival before. Let’s Dance had been fourth in the Triumph Hurdle, but kept her novice status, as did Concertista, who was second to stablemate Eglantine Du Seuil in the 2019 edition on her first run for Willie Mullins. Exactly half of the winners were second season novice hurdlers, showing that immediate success is not key to this race.
Prep
Willie Mullins’ first three winners had all contested a Graded novice hurdle in January, but as with many of these trends, this changes with the most recent three winners. Eglantine Du Seuil had been off the track for the best part of six months when she won, but the last two both finished third in the mares handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Mares’ Novices’ Verdict
The verdict goes to PARTY CENTRAL who was the winner of the mares’ handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, a race that was very influential to the Cheltenham Festival last season. Though the last two winners of this race did not win that particular contest, it can hardly be viewed as a negative that she did. Brandy Love also fits a number of the trends nicely.
KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
Age
Nine of the last ten winners have been aged between seven and nine, with The Package the sole exception as a veteran aged 12. Particular preference would be fore the seven-year-olds, who have won the last three editions, and six of the last ten altogether.
Price
Mount Ida was the first favourite to oblige since Sunnyhillboy in 2012, but due to their prices, you would still have made a 1.5-point profit in the last decade on favourites. Seven of the ten winners since 2012 have started at single-figure odds, and you are better off viewing the head of the market positively.
GB or Ireland
For all that it is 5-5 in the last ten years, Irish trainers have claimed five of the last eight editions, including all of the last three. The momentum is strongly with them once again.
Form
Previous winning form anywhere is, bizarrely, almost a bad thing when looking at the honours board. Of the last five winners, Any Second Now and Milan Native wereboth winning for the first time over fences in this race, while Mount Ida and Domesday Book had only won the once. The Package only won three times over fences in his entire career, while both Spring Heeled and Same Difference were novices with only one prior chase victory each. Cause Of Causes, though a Festival favourite, was hardly easy to win with either.
Festival
Speaking of Festival form, Cause Of Causes is the only horse in the race to have won before or after at the Cheltenham Festival, and he managed both. Six of the ten had run at the Festival before, however.
Prep
Four of the last six winners of the Kim Muir had prepped in a non-handicap race, including the most recent trio. Three of those, Cause Of Causes, Any Second Now and Mount Ida, had all run in open Graded company, while Milan Native was second in a Beginners’ Chase. This shows a general trend towards protecting handicap marks where possible.
Kim Muir Verdict
Everything points towards current favourite FRONTAL ASSAULT. He is a novice without a win over fences, which may well suggest there is plenty more in his locker for what could end up being a rare run in a handicap. He has had previous winless form at the Cheltenham Festival, prepped in a non-handicap and will be within the perfect brackets for age and starting price as well.