This time next week, we will know the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup hero. GG’s analyst Joe Napier has searched through the trends to try to predict who will be crowned on Friday, alongside the other six races on the card. Read his conclusions here, along with 888‘s new customer offer of Bet £10 Get £50 In Bonuses, perfectly in time for Cheltenham.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
Experience
All Triumph Hurdlers are of course four-year-olds, so instead of age, it’s worth looking at the amount of experience each winner has had over hurdles. Seven of the winners in the last decade had had no more than three hurdles starts, which increases to eight of them if you make that for their current trainer (one of Quilixios’ four starts was in France).
Price
Only three winners have been favourites in the last decade, though Ivanovich Gorbatov went off at 9/2, so the profit margin is considerably greater for favourite backers as a result. However, for every short-priced winner, there has been a double-figure winner go in, so there’s no boundaries in terms of odds.
GB or Ireland
It may be 6-4 to Ireland, but Goshen would have won in anyone’s mind in 2020. That would of course make it 5-5 and that’s a fair reflection on what has been an even contest.
Form
Only Ivanovich Gorbatov had been outside of the first three on his previous start and he was so unlucky and seemingly progressive that he went off favourite anyway. Six of the other nine had won on their previous starts and all of those were unbeaten for the season.
Course
As none of these could have run at a previous Festival, course form from other Cheltenham meetings is used instead. Given how many winners have hailed from Ireland, it is obviously not a majorly determining factor and even of the British winners, only two of them had come to the track before.
Prep
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a very informative contest, with six of the winners running in that Leopardstown contest directly before winning this. However, only two of those six had actually won the race, so simply warming up at the Dublin Racing Festival is a positive.
Triumph Hurdle Verdict
There are not many horses who abide by the majority of the rules here. As such, it may be worth taking a chance on IL ETAIT TEMPS. He prepped in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle without winning but was still in the top three. He has had only one start over hurdles, so may well have more to come. All six Triumph Hurdle winners who had arrived at Cheltenham on the back of a victory were unbeaten, so Pied Piper is next on the list ahead of Vauban.
COUNTY HURDLE
Age
Seven of the last ten winners have been aged only five or six. Inexperienced, unexposed types often find they have plenty in hand, as was the case in particular with Saint Roi in 2020. The other three winners were all aged eight, but all very classy winners who won at Graded level at some point in their careers.
Price
Despite there seeming to be an obvious type to do well in this race, Saint Roi is the only favourite to score in the last decade. Indeed, eight of the winners in that time were a double-figure price. It is worth shopping around, looking for a horse with a likely profile.
GB or Ireland
With six of the last ten winners hailing from Ireland, it is there which is the likeliest destination again. However, a second trend to follow may be to simply look out for Dan Skelton’s runners, as he has trained the last three British based winners, all within the last six years.
Form
Eight of the past decade’s winners had finished in the top three on their last start before running in the County Hurdle. Wicklow Brave was the only winner to have shown absolutely no form all season though, so at least one run above a previous season’s level of form is relatively necessary.
Festival
Only half of the winners of this race had run at a previous Festival, so experience is not key. However, all of those who had, had run in a hurdle race over the minimum trip. No chase or bumper experience is preferred, as is less past experimentation in terms of trip. This applies to non-Festival contests too.
Prep
All three of Dan Skelton’s winners had not run in the same calendar year, with Superb Story and Ch’tibello coming off substantial layoffs. In the last five runnings, only one horse had competed in a handicap prior to winning, with the other four running in open company of sorts, three at Graded level.
County Hurdle Verdict
There are two to look out for in what is still a sizeable field of entries. It is debatable whether QUILIXIOS has shown the same level of form in any of his starts this season, but he falls within many other categories and nearly conceded 2lb to beat Champion Hurdle fancy Teahupoo two starts back. He has been campaigned purely at the minimum trip, ran in, and won, the Triumph Hurdle over course and distance last term, competed in Graded company last time and represents value at his price, especially as a five-year-old. Tax For Max might struggle to get in (currently 49th on the list), but if he does, he fits very similar moulds.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Age
Six-year-olds are fairly dominant in the Albert Bartlett, with a 60% strike rate since 2012. Only seven-year-olds have won the race more than once otherwise, with both younger or slightly more aged runners struggling.
Price
More than any other open Grade 1 contest, the Albert Bartlett offers significant value in terms of its winners. Only one favourite has been successful in the last ten years, that being At Fishers Cross in 2013 at 11/8. No other market leader has been successful and only one winner since 2014 has been a single-figure price: Monkfish in 2020.
GB or Ireland
Colin Tizzard’s Kilbricken Storm is the only one preventing an Irish monopoly in the last five renewals. All told, it is 6-4 to Ireland since 2012 and they are the nation to side with yet again.
Form
There is an even split between those who had won last time out and those who had not, but they separate to almighty extremes. Four of the five winners who had won the start before had succeeded in at least their two starts, while Penhill had already scored three times as a novice hurdler. Meanwhile, those who had not won were often beaten substantially. Vanillier had a 0 next to his name before scooting in a year ago, while Kilbricken Storm was beaten 24 lengths and Very Wood had been last in a three-horse race.
Festival
None of the recent winners had contested the Champion Bumper and none were second season novices, so there is no previous Festival form necessary.
Prep
It is rare for a horse to have stepped out of simple novice company or handicaps, despite some surprise results. Though there are a variety of routes on show from the last ten winners, eight of them had run in a Graded novice hurdle the time before, so they were used to racing at a decent level already.
Albert Bartlett Verdict
Should either Whatdeawant or Grand Jury opt for this contest, it will be intriguing to see how they get on, but MAHLER MISSION looks way overpriced on the balance of things. He will be chasing a hat-trick, is the prime age ran in and won at Graded level last time out and has not been overly found in the market. John McConnell trained Streets Of Doyen to be third in the race last year.
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
Age
Remarkably, it has been 24 years since a horse aged ten or up has bagged the Gold Cup for their connections. As such, every winner apart from Long Run since 2000 has been aged between seven and nine.
Price
There have only been three winning favourites in the last ten runnings of the Gold Cup, compared to six in the ten years prior. It has become a much more difficult race for the market leader to win, either because of the lack of a superstar such as Best Mate or Kauto Star, or simply because the nature of the gruelling 3m2f should traditionally throw up a variety of results. That said, there have only been two winners priced into double figures in that time.
GB or Ireland
Five of the last six editions of the Gold Cup have returned to the Emerald Isle. That includes the last three trophies and the way this division has been set up all season, it looks almost certain to be six in seven.
Form
Minella Indo was the first Gold Cup winner for seven years, and only the second in the previous decade, who had not won in their final start before coming to Cheltenham. Otherwise, it has been fairly imperative to have built momentum up before challenging for the race. Certainly a win at some point during the season is vital, though not if you’re Lord Windermere, who remains one of the most puzzling winners of the event.
Festival
Seven of the last ten winners had at least placed in a previous Cheltenham Festival contest. Al Boum Photo fits both sides of the argument, as his 2019 victory was preceded by a fall in the previous season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, while said win was backed up by securing the double in 2020.
Prep
Nine of the ten had come from open Graded company the last time out, with the majority graduating from either the Irish Gold Cup or the Denman Chase at Newbury. Bobs Worth is the only one who had succeeded in handicap company, doing so in the 2012 Hennessey Gold Cup.
Gold Cup Verdict
It’s all about GALVIN, for whom it is all systems go in terms of trends. He comes here in winning form at Grade 1 level, has been placed in, or indeed won, two different Festival events in the past, is trained in Ireland and is the perfect age to be operating at his peak. Defending champion Minella Indo would be only the second winner of recent seasons to have not enjoyed prior success at any point during the current term, while two-time hero Al Boum Photo would be defying a serious wait for a ten-year-old to triumph.
FOXHUNTERS CHASE
Age
In total contrast to the Gold Cup, the Foxhunters has been the domain of veterans. Every winner since 2015 has been at least ten years of age, with three 11-year-olds winning in that time as well.
Price
For a non-handicap contest, the Foxhunters has provided a substantial number of big prices alongside their winners in recent years. Four of the last five have gone off at at least 16/1, with Hazel Hill winning as favourite in 2019. This recent reversal of fortunes for fancied runners does mean there could be some value.
GB or Ireland
Rejoice! Four of the last five winners have been, wait for it, British trained! Every winner between 2012 to 2016 had been Irish though, so while the Brits are enjoying a fruitful spell in the race, let’s not discount the noisy neighbours.
Form
Salsify, when he won in 2012 and 2013, had won his previous start before victory at Cheltenham. However, only two of the past eight heroes had been victorious on their immediately prior effort. That said, eight of the ten winners had finished in the top three before victory.
Festival
Six of the ten winners of this race had run in the contest before. Two-time champions On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder had both run in the race before either of their victories, while It Came To Pass had run in the 2016 edition as a six-year-old, four years before triumphing at 66/1 before the last of Cheltenham’s crowds.
Prep
Though this is a race that celebrates the variety of the racing world, including many faces from the point-to-point scene, nine of the ten winners had prepped in a very similar contest. Only Pacha Du Polder (the first time) and Tammys Hill were notably stepping up in trip from their previous runs, while It Came To Pass was the only horse to run in a point-to-point the start before.
Foxhunters Verdict
It would be glorious to see David Maxwell win at the Cheltenham Festival and BOB AND CO has a fantastic chance of doing just that. British trained horses have an intriguingly successful recent past in the race, while he has had a previous run in the race, unseating when travelling well a year ago. It is not a negative that he was beaten last time out and he represents an age group with recent success.
MARES’ CHASE
Who are you kidding? You know this race has only been staged once. Move on.
MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE
Age
Every single one of the last ten winners has been aged between five and seven years old, with a pick and mix shared out between the three ages. Any older than seven and your hopes are dashed immediately.
Price
Galopin Des Champs carried just the third single-figure price to success in last season’s Martin Pipe. A variety of prices between 5/1 and 25/1 have been successful, but there is one crucial letter that is absent next to the price of every recent winner: F. Not a single favourite has won the race in that time.
GB or Ireland
It’s a 6-4 victory for Ireland again, although it feels more dominant even than that. Irish trainers have won the race in six of the last eight years, as well as four of the previous five. It will likely be the crowning glory for the travelling band once again.
Form
There are two key elements that combine for nine of the ten winners of this race. You need to have either won a handicap convincingly, a la Attaglance, Salubrious and Indefatigable, or have competed in Graded company. None of the recent winners had been outside of the first four on their previous start other than Ibis Du Rheu.
Festival
Only three of the ten winners had run in a previous Festival contest, which goes to show how many novices had profited from their lack of exposure before winning. Ideally, you want a horse coming in from under the radar without a previous Cheltenham Festival visit.
Prep
Of the Irish winners, Don Poli and Blow By Blow had won Grade 3s before winning this handicap, while Killultagh Vic, Champagne Classic, Early Doors and Galopin Des Champs had been beaten in a variety of other Graded contests. The British winners have all come from handicaps, which goes to show the contrast in build-ups to this race.
Martin Pipe Verdict
Willie Mullins won this with Galopin Des Champs and often saves a good one for the race. State Man could be that horse, but traditionally you’d have needed a run in a better race than any he has seen so far. DEPLOY THE GETAWAY may therefore be the answer, having been runner-up in Listed company last time. With no previous Festival experience due to being a novice, he could well benefit from the step-up in trip and is in the right age group and nation to succeed.