It’s not easy to make the transition from maiden hurdle winner to Grade 1 hurdle winner in a single step, with just 16 of 193 qualifiers doing the double since 2002 (8.3% strike-rate). Backing these horses blind would have resulted in a loss of £102.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (53.2% on turnover).
Stuart Williams has a good record when using a first-time tongue-tie in all-weather handicaps, scoring with nine of the 44 qualifiers (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£44.85 at Betfair SP).
Andrew Mount provides his analysis and best bet for Saturday’s jumps action at Sandown and Leopardstown
ONE MORE CHANCE (stall four of 12) blew the start at Wolverhampton last time, doing well to get within three lengths of the all-the-way winner. Mick Appleby’s four-year-old is clearly quirky – she refused at the same venue the time before – but can be chanced to small stakes in a first-time visor when she contests the mile Follow Sun Racing On Twitter Handicap at Southwell on Thursday afternoon (3.40). Her sole success came over course and distance and it’s interesting to note that her trainer is five from 14 (35.7% strike-rate) with his first-time visored runners on Fibresand since the start of 2015 for a profit of £43.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. All five winners were unplaced on their latest outing and the two that switched from Wolverhampton both won (12-1 and 7-1).
Henry Oliver did us a favour at Kempton yesterday and the in-form handler can strike again courtesy of ANOTHER THEATRE, who goes in the opening Watch Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at Newcastle (1.20).
BALLARD DOWN, a three-time winner for William Knight, ran a pleasing race on his debut for David O’Meara when third of five at Newcastle a fortnight ago. The six-year-old wasn’t helped by racing close to the pace in that mile handicap and will be happier back on Polytrack in the Sun Racing No1 Racing Site Handicap at Lingfield (3.40).
Andrew Mount provides his analysis and best bet for Saturday’s jumps action at Cheltenham
Andrew Mount provides his analysis and best bets for Friday’s jumps action at Doncaster and Huntingdon
Sandy Thomson does well with his winter runners and had we bet everything he sent out from 1 November until the end of February, since 2013, we would have won 50 of our 251 bets (19.9% strike-rate) and made a huge profit of £185.72 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£520.68 at Betfair SP).
A SURE WELCOME (stall 2 of 11) Has a fine strike-rate on the all-weather for a horses who regularly plies his trade at Class 5 level, winning seven of his 19 starts.
Andrew Mount provides his analysis and best bets and for Saturday’s top jumps action at Ascot and Haydock (the latter is subject to a morning inspection)
FAREEQ returned to form when second to Mercers in a 5f Lingfield handicap on New Year’s Eve and the form has been boosted by the winner, just caught at Kempton when bidding to follow up, and the third, Pharoh Jake, a 12-1 scorer on his next start. He peaked at this time last year, winning at Chelmsford on January 18, and can go one better when he returns to Lingfield for the Betway Handicap (3.05).
BROCKEY RISE is best in Class 6 races over 6f-7f ,after a recent outing (within 21 days), recording form figures under these conditions of 12125721076 (3-11) for a profit of £27.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Arcano progeny tend to improve when they reach the age of four and they also seem best after a recent outing (21 days or less). Had we bet every qualifier on the Flat or in bumpers we would have won 68 of our 435 bets (15.6% strike-rate) and made a profit of £106.53 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£307.93 at Betfair SP).