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2023 Cheltenham Festival Trends – Day One

We are creeping ever closer to the start of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival and it is time to get those betting hats on. Cheltenham fanatic Dave Young (AKA @cheltmentalFB on Twitter) has delved into the trends for all day one races, which includes a useful cheat sheet for all the Day 1 races.

If you haven’t already, there’s still time to take advantage of alongside SkyBet‘s new customer offers – where you can choose between either £30 in Free Bets when you place ANY bet, or £40 in Free Bets for Horse Racing when you bet £10.


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Day One Cheltenham Festival Cheat Sheet

The festival is almost upon us and it’s time to get our ducks in a row. The form is there for all to see but what can history tell us about who may have the best chances this time round.

I’ve compiled some trends for every race and supplied a ‘Trend Tip’ where there is a standout contender. Some races will cut up between now and race day so be sure to check back nearer the time, especially for the weight and headgear related pointers.


Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30pm)

  • 23 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 11 of the last 13 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 11 had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
  • 21 of the last 28 winners ran in the last 45 days
  • Only 2 of the last 10 winners ran inside 28 days and 0 in the last 5
  • No winner in head-gear for over 30 years

Arkle Novices’ Chase (2.10pm)

  • Last 13 winners won last time out
  • 21 of 23 last winners were single figure priced
  • 14 of 16 were 6 or 7 year olds
  • 14 of the last 18 winner had won or placed at Cheltenham in the past
  • Only 1 winner in headgear in this century

TREND TIP – JONBON


Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50pm)

  • 10 of the last 13 ran had run at Cheltenham that season
  • 18 of the last 22 were 11/1 or shorter
  • 18 of 22 were rated 143 or less
  • 14 of 22 were rated 140+
  • 4 of the last 10 and 2 of the last 5 ran in the last 28 days
  • Only 3 of the last 14 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
  • Irish have only won twice since 1967 and are 0-34 in the last 16 runnings
  • Paul Nicholls 0 from 24

TREND TIP: NASSALAM


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Champion Hurdle (3.30pm)

  • 33 of the last 39 won last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 were unbeaten that season
  • Ireland and Nicky Henderson have won 20 of the last 24 between them
  • Willie Mullins and Henderson have won 9 of the last 14
  • Avoid horses who failed to finish top 3 last time out

Mares’ Hurdle (4.10pm)

  • 14 of the last 15 had won over at least 2m 4f
  • Avoid front runners
  • Avoid British Bred

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50pm)

  • Half of the last 18 winners won last time out (including last year’s winner Brazil)
  • 13 of the last 18 were rated 124-134
  • 13 of the last 18 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
  • Look for a horse who raced this year, preferably since January
  • Only 3 of the last 18 were rated 135+
  • Avoid British Bred
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before

National Hunt Chase (5.30pm)

  • 11 of the last 13 had run in a Graded Chase
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 145 or more  
  • 9 of the last 13 had run at a previous festival
  • 9 of the last 13 had run 5+ times over fences
  • 12 of the last 17 were aged 7 or 8 and 23 of the last 32
  • 4 of the last 12 winners were top rated

TREND TIP: GAILLARD DU MESNIL


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