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2023 Grand National Trends – Who The Stats Suggest Will Win

The most famous Horse Race in the Country which brings households together to enjoy this wonderful sport. The spectacle itself is worth watching alone but bragging rights are up for grabs, so Dave Young (AKA @cheltmentalFB on Twitter) has run through some key trends to help whittle down the field.

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First things first, here’s a reminder of last year’s Grand National, won by 50/1 outsider NOBLE YEATS:


Standout Stats

  • Since 1983 just 5 out of the 37 winners carried MORE than 11 stone and three of those were sent off as Favourite or Joint Favourite.
  • An Irish trained runner has won 5 of the last 6 running’s.
  • The last 7 winners were aged 9 or younger.

The Last 10 Winners


Year Horse (Age) Trainer/Jockey Odds
2022 Noble Yeats (7) T: Emmet Mullins
J: Sam Waley-Cohen
50/1
2021 Minella Times (8) T: Henry De Bromhead
J: Rachael Blackmore
11/1
2019 Tiger Roll (9) T: Gordon Elliott
J: Davy Russell
4/1F
2018 Tiger Roll (8) T: Gordon Elliott
J: Davy Russell
10/1
2017 One For Arthur (8) T: Lucinda Russell
J: Derek Fox
14/1
2016 Rule The World (9) T: M F Morris
J: David Mullins
33/1
2015 Many Clouds (8) T: Oliver Sherwood
J: Leighton Aspell
25/1
2014 Pineau De Re (11) T: Dr Richard Newland
J: Leighton Aspell
25/1
2013 Auroras Encore (11) T: Sue Smith
J: Ryan Mania
66/1
2012 Neptune Collonges (11) T: Paul Nicholls
J: Daryl Jacob
33/1

AGE

  • 7 of the last 10 were aged 9 or younger
  • 4 of the last 10 were aged 8
  • 3 of the last 10 were aged 11
  • Last year’s winner NOBLE YEATS was the first 7yo since 1940
  • “We’re looking for an 8 or 9 year old but age isn’t the be all and end all”

WEIGHT

  • 7 of the last 10 carried 10 stone 11 pounds or less
  • 11 stone 6 pounds is the 10 year high weight
  • 10 stone 3 pounds is the 10 year low weight
  • 10 stone 11 pounds is the 10 year average weight
  • “We’re looking for a horse to be carrying 10st 11lbs or less”

TRAINER

  • 5 of the last 10 were Irish Trained (5 of the last 6)
  • Gordon Elliott is the last back to back trainer with TIGER ROLL
  • Gordon is also the last trainer to win it twice in recent years with SILVER BIRCH in 2007 winner before TIGER ROLL’S first win in 2018
  • Gordon Elliott trained 2021 winner MINELLA TIMES up to the National too
  • Nigel Twiston-Davies is the last British trainer to win in succession (1998 & 2002)
  • “Gordon Elliott would be a trainer to note; that said everything has a chance”

PRICE

  • 9 of the last 10 were NOT favourite
  • 6 of the last 10 were 25/1 or bigger
  • The average price in the last 10 years is 27/1
  • “Price really shouldn’t influence your decision”

SEASON FORM

  • Just 2 of the last 10 winners had run over Hurdles the same season
  • 7 of the last 10 had run at least 4 times that season
  • 7 of the last 10 has won that season (5 of the last 5)
  • 7 of the last 10 had raced inside the last 36 days (all inside the last 85)
  • 6 of the last 10 had failed to complete in a race that season
  • 5 of the last 10 had won inside the last 85 days
  • 5 of the last 10 had run at The Cheltenham Festival (Only TIGER ROLL won at both)
  • “Ideally we want a horse who has raced 4 times or more this season with the last run coming inside the last 6 weeks and even better if they have a win under their belt this term and don’t worry if they fell, unseated or pulled up”

CAREER FORM

  • 9 of the last 10 had raced at least 10 times over fences
  • 9 of the last 10 had NOT run in a previous English Grand National
  • 8 of the last 10 had been ridden by their jockey before (7 of the last 7)
  • 7 of the last 10 had won 3 or more times over fences (not the last 2)
  • 7 of the last 10 had won over 3 miles plus (not the last 2)
  • 7of the last 10 had been to Aintree before
  • “Having run at Aintree is a big plus but not so much horses who have run in this race before who weren’t successful. Experience is key and a minimum of 10 spins over fences is wanted”
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The (Very) Shortlist

I’ve whittled the field down to those aged 9 or younger who have raced inside the last 6 weeks and are due to be carrying 10 stone 11 or less. They will have run at least 10 times over fences and have raced at Aintree before but NOT in the Grand National.

THE BIG BREAKAWAY & GIN ON LIME hit all the boxes but the latter isn’t a certain runner so the focus here will be on Joe Tizzard’s giant. A horse who always looked like he could be a top-notcher who hasn’t really progressed as quickly as you might have liked. He is just an 8yo though and his jumping is much better than it used to be. I think he’s grown into himself and we know that stamina is assured. His prep run at Cheltenham isn’t a major concern given he pulled up although all winners in the last 10 who had run at both Festivals did finish their race at Prestbury Park. His only run here also resulted in him pulling up but he was well fancied that day and a lot has happened in the two years since then.

I believe he’s back in a decent level of form so despite not having a win to his name this season, he’s run two big races in second which more than make up for that.

NEAR MISSES:

Plenty just missed out on one thing or another from my ‘quota’ listed above and the general omission was to have raced 10 times over fences in their career. This ruled out the likes of CORACH RAMBLER & MR INCREDIBLE while LE MILOS & VELVET ELVIS just haven’t been to Aintree before.


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