The festive action has finally cooled after a sensational run of racing in Britain and Ireland this past week. We analyse the impact on the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting market in the latest in our Going For Gold series, with reflections on the King George and Savills Chase.
Boxing Day – King George VI Chase @ Kempton
Even neutrals will have felt sorry for connections of Il Est Francais, who was fewer than 100 yards away from one of the most memorable King George performances in recent times. However, despite being a flatter track, 3m at Kempton still requires saving something in reserve, which is what Paul Townend had done on Banbridge as they produced the late, late show in Sunbury.
This was a first chase run over this trip for Joseph O’Brien’s charge, but he had already won over 2m4½f at Kempton in January. Given how strongly he went through the line, his exploits over 2m, over which he won a Grade 1, now look even more impressive and the Gold Cup could be on the horizon. He has been introduced at 33/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair given the strength elsewhere in the division, but should not be underestimated if the ground is good and connections choose to run him in the great race.
With his stride slowly losing momentum up the Kempton straight, Il Est Francais could only finish a gallant runner-up. However, he was eased to 33/1 from 20s as his stamina may be a weakness at Cheltenham for all his swashbuckling style could put his rivals under pressure early on at Prestbury Park.
In third, L’Homme Presse made a pleasing return to action, especially as he prefers going left-handed. His best odds of 40/1 for the Gold Cup were unmoved after this effort, as he was fourth in the race last year and did not perform here to suggest he can step forward plentifully enough.
The Real Whacker was marginally cut into 66/1 from 100s after finishing fourth in the King George for the second straight year, though uncompetitively in both cases. Conversely, Spillane’s Tower drifted significantly down the market, highs of 12/1 replaced by 33/1 after he could finish only fifth, and a tiring one at that. The ground may have been on the lively side for him, but he will need to rediscover his John Durkan form in order to bounce back.
This was also a painful day for Grey Dawning fans. Dan Skelton’s charge made a howler at the first fence and never recovered, with his Betfair Chase efforts potentially still taking their toll too. He is another 33/1 shot in the market now, more than double his pre-race 16/1 odds for the Friday Festival bonanza, while fellow British-trained Bravemansgame remains a 100/1 shot after his latest nondescript effort in eighth.
Overall, this was a King George which outlined the task ahead for a number of its participants before the Gold Cup in March. Sixth-placed Corbetts Cross was yet another slider in the betting, being eased out to 40/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power from 20s. Cheltenham will suit him better though, so his is possibly the most generous concession by the bookmakers.
Juntos Ganamos was introduced at a token 100/1 after travelling across from France for seventh, though last-placed General En Chef and he pulled up veteran Envoi Allen are unavailable ante-post for the Gold Cup.
Saturday, 28th December – Savills Chase @ Leopardstown
There may only be a year between them in age, but the clash between Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File in Leopardstown’s Savills Chase on Saturday felt like a battle of generations. If that was how it was broadly viewed, it was won emphatically by the old guard.
A second successive Savills Chase win was earned by Galopin Des Champs, who controlled the race from the front under Paul Townend for a 7½-length success. Despite challenging strongly before the last, Fact To File was left toiling up the run-in, as the dual Gold Cup champion surged away, just as he had done in the race a year ago.
This was authoritative and point-proving from the established leader of the pack. Galopin Des Champs had been displaced as the Gold Cup favourite after the John Durkan, but regained the position at a best price of 6/4 with SkyBet after this latest display of greatness. Having been as short as 5/2 post-Punchestown, Fact To File is now a 4/1 shot with this substantial piece of form to overturn.
This may well have been a career best from Gentlemansgame, who was up there with the pace for the majority of the race before fading to third. He was still more than 12 lengths adrift at the post though, but was cut slightly from 66/1 to 50/1 with SkyBet.
Another in the Robcour colours, Heart Wood ran a cracker of a race for his first Grade 1 in open company, narrowly getting the better of Inothewayurthinkin for fourth. That rival had won a Grade 1 novice chase contested by the pair at Aintree last term, though both were drifters in the betting given Galopin Des Champs’ dominance, the former being 100/1 from 50/1, the latter 50/1 from 33s.
Grangeclare West improved marginally from his pulling up in the John Durkan to take sixth, but never featured meaningfully. He looked a talented novice last term, but has not built on that promise, so Gold Cup odds of 66/1 from 33/1 look reasonable. In last of the eight finishers, this was arguably a regression from Minella Cocooner, who had run very creditably in fifth in the John Durkan, but did not improve as he may have been expected to for this longer trip. He is also 66/1, from a previous 50/1
Lastly, the big disappointment was Grand National hero I Am Maximus. As was largely the case last season, he could not keep up in Grade 1 company, jumping frequently out to his left. Aintree will surely be the aim again, as he is now twice the price for the Gold Cup at 66/1 from 33s.
Gold Cup Ante-Post Movers
Galopin Des Champs ↑ 6/4 from 3/1
Gentlemansgame ↑ 50/1 from 66/1
The Real Whacker ↑ 66/1 from 100/1
Banbridge → 33/1
L’Homme Presse → 40/1
Bravemansgame → 100/1
Juntos Ganamos → 100/1
Fact To File ↓ 4/1 from 5/2
Spillane’s Tower ↓ 33/1 from 12/1
Grey Dawning ↓ 33/1 from 16/1
Il Est Francais ↓ 33/1 from 20/1
Corbetts Cross ↓ 40/1 from 20/1
Inothewayurthinkin ↓ 50/1 from 33/1
I Am Maximus ↓ 66/1 from 33/1
Grangeclare West ↓ 66/1 from 33/1
Minella Cocooner ↓ 66/1 from 50/1
Heart Wood ↓ 100/1 from 50/1
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