track-bias-diary-v2 LUCKY BEGGAR (stall 1 of 12) is best in smallish fields and is also happiest when drawn near a rail. He has both conditions in the 5.5f Business Connection Handicap at Chester on Friday night (9.00) and could be hard to beat with a clean break. He also tends to come good at this time of year and is 6lb lower than when scoring from stall 2 of 8 at left-handed Catterick last summer.

Only four go to post for the 1m World Cup Betting Fillies’ Handicap at Chepstow (5.35) but there are statistical negatives regarding the front two in the betting forecast. Sary Aqua is having her first start for Archie Watson’s whose ‘switchers’ have a modest strike-rate and Lady Alavesa wears cheekpieces for the first time and Gay Kelleway is 0-28 when using this headgear on turf since 2009. AQUA LIBRE on the other hand has plenty going for her. She looks the sole early pace and will appreciate the drop back down to Class 5 level after her close fourth in Class 4 company at Carlisle last time.


Aqua Libre – Chepstow 5.35 (1pt win, the 5-2 with Paddy Power and Betfair is the best current offer though most firms have yet to price up)

Lucky Beggar – Chester 9.00 (1pt win, 7-1 Bet365, 6-1 generally)

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