There’s a very strong draw bias over 1m-1m2f at Pontefract, with those drawn in the three lowest stalls strongly favoured. Well-berthed Pontefract winners were often flattered and tend to struggle next-time out. Since 2006, has we backed all 1m-1m2f Pontefract winners (stalls 1, 2 or 3 only) on their next outing we would have won only 21 of our 185 bets (11.35% strike-rate) and made a loss of £755.80 to a £10 level stake at SP (-£614.50 at Betfair SP). Ravenhoe, a winner from stall 1 at Pontefract on 3 May, was a qualifier on this system earlier this week when trailing home last of the 12 runners at Chepstow (5-1).
Red Tea, a stall 2 Pontefract winner on 24 April, could well be worth opposing in the 1m Discover Newmarket Handicap this afternoon (4.55). He was probably flattered by his Pontefract Class 4 win, his up 7lb in a better race and has never won on ground slower than good.
STORM AHEAD ran a blinder when eighth of 21 in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time, a race that has already thrown up the Victoria Cup one-two Fastnet Tempest and George William, as well as York winner Master Carpenter, looks the best alternative. That comeback effort might have been needed and he won on soft ground second-time out last year.
Storm Ahead – Newmarket 4.55 (2pts win, 4-1 Betfred, Paddy Power, 7-2 Bet365)