There’s seven stunning races on day two of the Cheltenham Festival and our value tipster Matthew Sutcliffe is here with his best bets for Wednesday 12th March, 2025. Check out his best bets for the second day of action, which includes some big-priced selections.
1:20 Cheltenham – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Kel Histoire 25/1 1pt EW 3 places (The New Lion advised 25/1 1pt EW AP)
Willie Mullins saddled the first four home in last year’s renewal ofthe Turners, bettering his first three home in 2023, which in turn bettered his first and second in the 2022 renewal. Final Demand looks his best hope here provided the test is one stamina-laden enough, but you ideally need a horse well suited to a Supreme for the Turners as it can often turn into a sprint, and I’d have Final Demand as more of an Albert Bartlett hope than anything.
The New Lion was the first of our ante-post bets in the weekly series at 25/1 (1pt EW) so should he duly oblige, then we’ve already landed profit from the ante-post plays. With that in mind, I’m happy to play an each way option to the favourite in the form of KEL HISTOIRE, who’s the choice of Mark Walsh over JP’s other runner Kaid d’Authie, with Skelton always going to ride The New Lion.
The Masked Marvel gelding cost £200,000 after success in France, with the three time subsequent winner in second now also in the hands of Willie Mullins. He won cosily on hurdles debut despite not jumping well throughout, but asserting well on top at the finish under Mark Walsh shaping as if a step up in trip would suit given how strong he was at the finish. The second hasn’t done much to frank the form, but that didn’t stop him from showing up well in the Moscow Flyer when second to Salvator Mundi, again shaping as if a step up in trip would suit.
He was caught for pace on the turn once the sedate gallop lifted, but he wasn’t aided by being hampered by Salvator Mundi at the last, jumping it in fourth before doing remarkably well to regather his stride and chinning Relieved Of Duties for second. Mullins won the Moscow Flyer with Impaire Et Passe prior to landing the Turners, which can only bode well for Kel Histoire who looks sure to be suited to this step up in trip.
2:10 Cheltenham – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Broadway Novices’ Chase) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – (Ballyburn already advised 2pt WIN at 4/1)
Rather foolishly, we’re already a point down on Ballyburn having played him at 40/1 in the hope he might’ve been entered for a gold cup too, but in turn we effectively have 4/1 on him and I can’t see anything good enough to serve it up to him. I won’t be going in again at 6/5 now, but I certainly wouldn’t put anyone else backing him on the day if you’re inclined at the prices.
2:40 Cheltenham – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Colonel Mustard 33/1 2pt EW 6 places + Anna Bunina 40/1 0.5pt EW 6 places
In a weak looking renewal of the Coral Cup, COLONEL MUSTARD looks wildly overpriced at 33s considering his festival record. He was third to State Man in the 2022 County Hurdle, beaten only three lengths by the subsequent Champion Hurdle winner. He was far from disgraced in what was admittedly a weak renewal of the 2024 Champion Hurdle last season, but he was still only beaten eleven lengths which is more than respectable considering the level of this Coral Cup.
His form has been strong this season, finishing second to Solness on seasonal bow at Sligo with that one now rated 161 after two G1 romps over fences this term, and he ran a solid race in the G2 Howden Hurdle at Ascot when beaten a length into third, with the winner Lucky Place going in since now rated 153 and very much a stayers hurdle contender. Golden Ace was behind Colonel Mustard there and has also franked the form since with a win in the G2 Kingwell Hurdle, and he ran another good race when beaten three lengths by the now 153r Kitzbuhel, who took the G3 Red Mills trial next time out.
His form this season is unbelievably rock solid, and I like the angle of a class horse dropping back to a handicap at the festival. He drops back into a handicap for the first time since his second to Rubaud in the 2022 Morebattle off this mark, though the excellent Tiernan Power Roche takes off a handy 5lbs. His handicap record overall reads 322 and now that he appears to be settling in his races, he’s by the far my best bet of the first two days off what is effectively a mark of 141 in a below average Coral Cup.
I’d also like to be on the side of ANNA BUNINA, who looks overpriced for frame possibilities now tackling the intermediate trip at the festival, having just been out of the placings in both the County Hurdle and Pertemps Final at recent festivals.
Harry Cobden is 5-2-3 all time riding for the yard, and the mare’s best effort this season came at the intermediate distance here over 2m4f when a length second to progressive mare Wyenot, giving her 11lbs, with the winner now rated 16lbs higher after a listed wine at Doncaster prior to a respectable third in G3 company behind Jetara and Kateira.
Anna Bunina has to be taken on trust given her latest two effort have been underwhelming to say the least, but they both came in Pertemps qualifiers which most horses aren’t seen to best effect and she evidently wasn’t suited to the cheekpieces last time out. She might not be particularly well treated off this mark of 136, but she’s 4lbs and 7lbs lower than her latest two attempts here and only a pound higher than her respectable County eighth in 2021. This spring ground will suit her more than most, and given her experience in these type of races she has to be considered with Cobden aboard particularly on the back of her second here in October.
3:20 Cheltenham – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) -Escaria Ten 50/1 2pt EW 5 places
Had this race not become a handicap, I likely wouldn’t be as strong on ESCARIA TEN but given he has a 9lbs swing in the weights with 2/1 favourite Stumptown for a four length defeat over C&D last time out, he looks a stellar each way bet to at least fill the first five places.
The former National Hunt Chase third has some smart back class to his name, not least the aforementioned festival effort and his nose second to Any Second Now in the 2022 Bobbyjo, with the winner beaten two lengths in the Aintree spectacle next time out. His form tailed off thereafter bar a second to Darasso in listed company at Thurles, but he was rejuvenated by the switch to this cross country discipline in December having made most of the running and trading short after two good jumps late on, only being collared late on having done plenty in front.
A repeat of that effort would make him wildly overpriced for win purposes let alone frame possibilities, and he backed that effort up with a twelve length fourth in the 26k Masters Handicap at Sandown last month giving weight away to all those in front of him. Martin Keighley is a dab hand with these cross country types having got Back On The Lash to win a pair of C&D contests, and if the spark continues for Escaria Ten then he’s likely to give another strong account of himself from the front.
4:00 Cheltenham – BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Captain Guinness already advised 40/1 1pt EW 3 places
A peak Jonbon puts this field to sleep, but I’m happy enough with our ante post position on Captain Guinness to retain his QMCC crown, for all he’ll have to drastically improve on what he’s shown this season. His form in this contest reads 21, with his overall Cheltenham form reading BD (still in contention)321, which tells you exactly when he’s likely to be primed for.
4:40 Cheltenham – Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Nells Son 33/1 0.5pt EW 5 places + Unexpected Party already advised 14/1 1pt WIN
It could be some day for the ante-post column if The New Lion, Captain Guinness and Unexpected Party all go well, with the latter into a top price of 7/1 to reclaim his Grand Annual crown having advised him at 14s for this race on the 14th January.
If Unexpected Party isn’t able to bounce back to form, I’d like to chance NELLS SON who ties in well with the grey having beat him a length at Carlisle in the Graduation Chase. He backed that effort up when closing on the long time leader Matata close to home at Kelso in the 39k Richard Lansdale Memorial Handicap, and that one has generously franked the form having won twice since, now rated 8lbs higher and latterly not disgraced in the G2 Game Spirit. He was shuffled back in rear after a mistake at the fourth at Doncaster last time out, but he was only beaten seven lengths off top weight giving 24lbs to the well handicapped winner and his latest two career best RPR’s of 154 and 151 give him winning credentials in here. He’s in career best form this term, and outside of the top 2/3 in the market it doesn’t look a particularly strong renewal to at least fill the frame at 33/1.
5:20 Cheltenham – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4-6yo) – El Cairos 33/1 1pt EW 4 places
If El CAIROS wasn’t ridden/owned by David Maxwell, I’d have no doubt he’d be a single figure poke in here. The No Risk At All gelding cost £200,000 after his point to point success last April, and made a solid impression on bumper debut at Newbury in November having bolted up in impressive style to win going away by six lengths having travelled strongly in rear throughout.
The RaceIQ data backs up such a visual impression, with a top speed of 37.8MPH and a 120.77% finishing speed. For context, Copacabana’s clocked a top speed of 35.39mph last time out with a finishing speed percentage of 117.94, Gameofinches 31.62mph/108.69%, and Kalypso’schance clocked 35.7mph, with a FSP of 109.43%. I’m not massive on times, and I’m well aware that each race provides a different scenario regarding ground and the way it unfolds, but there’s no denying that the data suggests El Cairos is a fairly rapid tool and the nature of the Champion Bumper should undoubtedly suit him to a tee.
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