Thursday at the Cheltenham Festival is wide open across almost every card, and so Matty Sutcliffe is looking for mega value. He has not one, but TWO 100/1 shots that he thinks are worth backing on day three of the 2025 Festival.
1:20 Cheltenham – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Just A Rose 20/1 1pt EW 4 places + Lagertha 100/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Paul Nicholls is yet to win the Dawn Run, but both of his best chances of a Festival winner this season come here and the unexposed JUST A ROSE gets the nod. The Saint Des Saints mare cost £175,000 after beating Country Mile in a point to point, with that one now rated 137 for Dan Skelton. She was off the track for over a year before demolishing the eld at Taunton over 2m3f, the same route which Golden Ace began her journey to the Mares Novice success last season.
The form is admittedly nothing to shout about, but visually I thought she was seriously impressive there given how she readily brushed pass Seymourjohn on the turn to come home twenty six lengths clear with two fluent leaps up the straight. She was over four seconds quicker than the second in the final four furlongs, and twelve lengths quicker than the 135-rated winner of the 0-150 handicap later in the card.
She was supposed to go down the Jane Seymour route next time out to follow the same path as the last two winners of the Dawn Run in You Wear It Well and Golden Ace, but Nicholls was keen not to run her in desperate ground and I’ve no issues with her coming here fresh given her record thus far. She’s entirely unexposed, and she brings just as much potential as anything in here.
I’d also like to have a saver on LAGERTHA, who’s an impeccably well bred daughter of No Risk At All out of a Grade 1 placed French mare. Her bumper for reads well, an she’s already some track experience in that sphere. Her overall hurdles form is way off the level required to win this, but she won with any amount in hand in a Chepstow maiden hurdle last time out and this big eld will suit her to come off the pace and perhaps fill the frame.
2:00 Cheltenham – Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The Golden Miller) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Lord Of Thunder 16/1 1pt EW 5 places (Asian Master already advised ante-post 14/1 1pt WIN)
LORD OF THUNDER has been steadily progressive over fences and got off the mark at the fourth time of asking last time out when staying on strongly to defeat Pic Roc. He was still travelling strongly here in October prior to coming down three out, and while better could’ve been expected at Exeter in December, he’s improved greatly since being equipped with a tongue tie.
He was a solid nine length second to Handstands in the G2 Towton Novice’ Chase at Ffos Las, and he would’ve been a clear second that day had three of them not come down three out. The winner has since landed a grade one now rated 154, with the second that day landing the Arkle on Tuesday. A subsequent 2lbs rise wasn’t overly excessive in that respect, and the way he travelled around Newbury last time out suggests a mark of 134 might not stop him either.
2:40 Cheltenham – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Idem 40/1 1pt EW 5 places (Feet Of A Dancer already advised 14/1 1pt WIN)
Lucinda Russell and Patrick Wadge teamed up to land the Ultima with Myretown off number 23 on the cloth, and they’ve managed to sneak in IDEM off second bottom weight after his eye-catching effort in a Pertemps qualifier at Musselburgh last time out.
Wadge cajoled him into the race from rear travelling strongly in between horses, but arguably ‘too’ well for a qualifier and he had to switch course on multiple occasions to prevent some momentum. Prior to that he was a cosy winner at Kelso off top weight, again notably travelling best of all with Wadge only getting serious on him after the last with a short run to the line. He lacks the substance of some of his competitors’ form, but he looks to be one suited to a tee by this test, travelling strongly in rear before picking them off.
3:20 Cheltenham – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Hang In There 100/1 0.5pt EW 3 places (Jungle Boogie already advised 22/1 1pt EW)
HANG IN THERE will appreciate this quicker going more than most and he isn’t a million miles off this eld on ratings. Il Est Francais and The Real Whacker will ensure its a strongly run contest, and the tactically versatile Hang In There won’t mind how it pans out particularly given his surplus of stamina.
His record fresh over fences reads a respectable 14224, and he won’t be unfazed by a drop back in trip. This is his first time in grade one company since a distant fifth in the Tolworth in 2020, but he wasn’t disgraced in the G2 Charlie Hall when last seen in November, and given he’s largely been dominating competitive handicaps off top weight of late, the angle of going into a largely wide open grade one may prove a profitable one.
4:40 Cheltenham TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) Seddon 20/1 1pt EW 5 places
SEDDON took this two years ago off a 2lbs higher mark and while he is long in the tooth, he looks to have been saved for this race after a minor setback ruled him out off the Festival last season. He returned this year with two wins on at proving age is no detrimental factor, and he ran a solid race over C&D in Veterans company back in December off 5lbs (10lbs factoring in claim) higher.
Seddon improved on that effort when posting an RPR of 144 having fared much the best of those ridden prominently, jumping the last in tandem with the thrown in winner and weakening under hands and heels thereafter. He’s likely to be primed for this now, and while he may be vulnerable to younger legs, he boasts some crucial course form and Shakem Up’Arry used the latter Cheltenham contest as a prep for going on to win the Plate last season.
5:20 Cheltenham – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Spon By Thames Materials) (GBB) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-145) – Mint Boy 10/1 2pt WIN
Gavin Cromwell prepped Inothewayurthinkin masterfully to win this race last season having stepped up from 2m5f last time out, and MINT BOY looks to have been plotted out in a similar manner to land back to back renewals for the yard.
He made a promising chase debut when beaten nine lengths at Galway by Search For Glory, who franked the form when finishing second to Stellar Story in the Florida Pearl before finishing a four length third in the G1 Faugheen Novice Chase. Sa Majeste was a length ahead of Mint Boy at Galway, though has a 4lbs swing in the weights to find with him.
Mint Boy was evidently campaigned for a chase mark having been beaten twenty lengths over two miles at Leopardstown, but he bounced back to form when third in a Beginners Chase at Punchestown finishing eleven lengths behind a 148r Mullins horse, and given he steps back up to three miles for the first time since winning on handicap debut at Fairyhouse last January, this looks to have been the plan all along for chase handicap debut.
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