The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the feature on day four of the Cheltenham Festival, but after a week in which plenty of his each-way fancies have made the frame at big prices, Matty Sutcliffe is siding with a 40/1 shot to outrun his odds in the big one…
1:20 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo) – Gibbs Island 20/1 1pt EW 3 places
Ex Irish at gelding GIBBS ISLAND was rated 84 in that sphere last season, and has taken to hurdling with aplomb thus far coming into the race unbeaten in two efforts.
He pulled 16 lengths clear with the 4/7F on hurdles debut at Sedgefield, with the runner-up winning twice since latterly by 57 lengths. He stepped up on that next time out in the Victor Ludorum when readily seeing off Give It To Me Oj by six lengths giving away 5lbs, with that one winning cosily since. The key bit of form that gives Gibbs Island a strong chance is that Give It To Me Oj was beat five lengths by East India Dock on debut (second ran well in Fred Winter), which taking that form literally, would see East India Dock needing to nd a length with Gibbs Island and that’s not accounting for the 5lbs penalty either.
He’s not too far away on ratings and given he’s still entirely unexposed, he looks seriously overpriced with the market protagonists.
2:00 Cheltenham – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) (Ethical Diamond already advised 20/1 1pt win) – Irish Panther 25/1 1pt EW 5 places
I’m happy with our position on Ethical Diamond, but I’m keen to get onside of the bottom weight IRISH PANTHER who’s effectively in off 121 here. The Lucarno gelding is unexposed in handicaps, and was staying on strongly at Leopardstown last time out when beaten a length by McLaurey, and a large weight swing with that one suggests he’s overpriced here.
That last effort was far from a flash in the pan, his P2P form reads strongly having finished ahead of the National Hunt Chase winner Haiti Couleurs , and he was beaten two lengths on bumper debut behind Fact To File finishing seven lengths of Will Do, who was third in the NHC on Tuesday. He was then sent off the 11/8F in a bumper finishing four lengths behind Ballyburn, and while he was a beaten favourite again next time out, the winner (Farren Glory) was a smart novice in his own right now rated 146. Two further places at short odds were matched by a poor effort at Listowel, but he’s evidently turned a corner and if the first time tongue tie can eke out further improvement in the finish then he’ll surely prove to be thrown in off this mark.
3:20 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – First Confession 0.5pt EW 50/1 4 places (Argento Boy 25/1 1pt win already advised)
The Albert Bartlett has thrown up just one single figure SP in the last ten seasons and given Colin Tizzard won it with Kilbricken Storm in 2017 at 33/1, FIRST CONFESSION is chanced in a wide open renewal after a strong performance at Ascot last time out.
The P2P winner was no match for Potters Charm here in October, but by no means disgraced staying on in third prior to drawing clear in an Ascot contest that’s thrown up some smart types in the past, including Crambo in 2022.
Better could’ve been expected at Newbury in the Challow and that evidently wasn’t his true running, but the manner in which he drew clear back at Ascot was impressive, smacking of a stayer in the making and he could improve once more now stepping up in trip.
4:00 Cheltenham – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – The Real Whacker 40/1 1pt EW 3 places (Monty’s Star already advised 20/1 1pt EW)
The 2023 Brown Advisory winner is three from six here and for all he bombed out in last seasons Gold Cup, the visor might’ve been partly to blame there as he was stuffed 28L next time out in the same aid. THE REAL WHACKER bounced back to form in the Charlie Hall this season with a strong front running ride under Brian Hughes, and I thought his King George fourth was excellent given how the race unfolded. He couldn’t go the gallop with Il Est Francais, but he found a second wind after jumping the second last clocking the second quickest final furlong, boding well for the return to the Gold Cup.
He has some work to do to reverse the form with Banbridge, but this drying ground will equally suit and there’s every chance that finishing 17 lengths behind Banbridge again will see him fill the frame in third for each way purposes.
5:20 Cheltenham – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145) Taponthego 8/1 1pt WIN + Electric Mason 25/1 1pt EW 5 places
TAPONTHEGO wasn’t on my radar until the Henry De Bromhead prole piece from the other week, but unless this Kopeck De Mel is the second coming then I think Taponthego could go very close here off a handy mark.
The Champs Elysees gelding is guaranteed a run at number twenty four in the cloth, and smacks of a ‘plot’ to give the yard only their third handicap success at the Festival. He finished second to Fleur In The Park at Wexford on debut in October, with the winner hitting the frame in four successive graded contests since including a neck second to The Yellow Clay at Navan.
Taponthego then beat McLaurey nine lengths next time out when upped in trip to this distance at Tipperary, who’s franked that form considerably since having landed the 74k handicap at Leopardstown last time out now rated 133. On that form alone, Taponthego has potential to be a 140s type, and that holds up given he finished four lengths behind Ol Man Dingle next time out, who’s now rated 139 having finished three lengths behind McLaurey next time out himself.
The latter two efforts were no doubt in a bid to qualify for a handicap at Cheltenham having travelled in rear on both occasions, finishing four lengths behind 2022 Champion Bumper third James’s Gate and he was never put into contention at Punchestown last time out. His best form has come in big elds which is a plus for the Martin Pipe, and he’s bred to appreciate a drying surface with the step back up in trip to suit.
ELECTRIC MASON looks slightly overlooked in the market judged on his form from this season, having beaten Laurens Bay in a Fontwell maiden hurdle with that one now rated 129 after taking the G3 EBF Final Handicap at Sandown last time out. Electric Mason was the beaten four lengths by The New Lion at Newbury with that one now rated 147 prior to winning the G1 Turners, with the second also franking the form having won the Sidney Banks next time out now rated 139.
Electric Mason was far from disgraced when beaten nine lengths in the Challow with the overall form of that race now working out quite well, and he was entitled to win cosily at 1/10F back at Fontwell next time out. The yard could be in better form, but off a mark of 132 he has to be considered here on the overall balance of his form.
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