Home / News / Cheltenham Festival / TrustATrader Plate Trends – Key Stats for Tricky Handicap Chase Puzzle

Cheltenham Festival

TrustATrader Plate Trends – Key Stats for Tricky Handicap Chase Puzzle

The TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase has been kinder to many favourite backers than other handicaps in recent years. However, do the trends bear this out over a longer period of time? We have looked into all of the key stats to unearth any clues to the 2024 winner of the race.

Bookmakers not found
Claim Bonus Signup Offer Bet £10 and Get £50 in Free Bets
Acca Boost
Claim Bonus
10 Our Score
Excellent Review

Age

Unusually for a race of this nature, no age group holds sway in terms of winning the Paddy Power Plate most regularly. Every age between six and 11 has seen more than one winner in the past 20 years, with the veterans Coole Cody and Seddon increasing the success rate of ten and 11-year-olds in the past two renewals.

Eight-year-olds have just about won the most renewals in this time period, with five wins, the latest courtesy of The Shunter in 2021. If there is any pointer to be gleaned from this race it is to rule out five-year-olds, with no winner of that age since 1999. Horses older than 11 can be ruled out too, although there are no entries among that age group in the 2024 race.

Age of the Last 20 Paddy Power Plate Winners

  • 5 – 0 winners
  • 6 – 4 winners
  • 7 – 4 winners
  • 8 – 5 winners
  • 9 – 3 winners
  • 10+ – 4 winners

Starting Price

Prior to a strong run of form from favourites or short-priced winners between 2018 to 2021, the Plate was a graveyard for those at single-figure odds. Between 2004 to 2017, just one winner went off at shorter than 12/1, that being Salut Flo in 2012. David Pipe’s charge is one of four winning favourites given the more recent success of market leaders, with The Storyteller, Simply The Betts and The Shunter all going off as outright favourites too.

That leaves Siruh Du Lac in 2019 as the only winner to go off at single-figure odds that was not favourite. The trend of outsiders coming good seems to be returning as well, with Coole Cody and Seddon going off at 22/1 and 20/1 respectively. A big shock cannot be ruled out either, with four winners going off at 33/1 or higher, including 2008 hero Mister McGoldrick at 66/1.

Starting Price of the Last 20 Plate Winners

  • <9/4 – 0 winners
  • 9/4-5/1 – 5 winners
  • 11/2-11/1 – 0 winners
  • 12/1-20/1 – 8 winners
  • 22/1+ – 7 winners

Weight Carried

A startling statistic stands out straight away when looking at the weights carried by Plate winners: only one horse has carried a weight greater than 11st 4lb to victory since 1987, let alone in our 20-year timeframe. Even that was a surprise given it was 66/1 chance Mister MocGoldrick who was lugging that weight to success.

A weight below 11st is generally required, with 15 of the last 20 winners burdened with less, though three of the last six winners have been above that threshold.

Weight Carried by the Last 20 Plate Winners

  • 10st-10st 6lb – 5 winners
  • 10st 7lb-10st 13lb – 10 winners
  • 11st-11st 6lb – 4 winners
  • 11st 7lb+ – 1 winner

Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections

Today’s Racecards

Today’s Top Tips


Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.