Cheltenham Festival Favourites – What do the Stats Say About the Likes of Jonbon and Galopin Des Champs?

Everybody wants to find winners at the Cheltenham Festival, and the obvious place to start is with the favourite for each race. However, how much success do favourite backers have at the Cheltenham Festival and are there races you should avoid the favourites in?

Since 1988, favourites at the Cheltenham Festival have a 26.9% strike rate. That means that better than one in every four favourites passes the famous winning post in front, which, considering the nature of the competition at the meeting, is pretty good. The rolling National Hunt average for favourites winning jumps races is between 30-35% though, so it is slightly more difficult to cheer a favourite home during Cheltenham week.

In terms of races to follow and avoid for favourites, the day one Grade 1s are a good place to start. The Mares’ Hurdle has been run 17 times since its inauguration and been won by the favourite on nine occasions, meaning favourites have won better than 50% of the time. 16 of the 36 favourites in the Champion Hurdle since 1988 have gone in too, so Constitution Hill backers can go into Tuesday with added confidence.

Conversely, it is worth studying every horse closely in the handicaps. Only three favourites have won the Coral Cup on the Wednesday of the Festival since its first renewal in 1993. That is a strike rate below 10%, while the Ultima Handicap Chase, which directly precedes the Mares’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle, has seen just four favourites win out of 36 since 1988, at an 11.1% rate. Meanwhile, despite being won by no horse going off at greater than 3/1, there is yet to be a favourite win the Mares’ Chase in four runnings.

Sometimes the Festival’s favourite success rate varies wildly. In 1993 and 1996, just one favourite won out of 20 races in those respective weeks; in that first year, the only winner came in the Coral Cup, the race with one of the lowest winning percentages for favourites at the Festival, while the Hunter Chase provided the first winning favourite in 1996, meaning punters had to wait until the 17th of 20 races that week for a market leader to justify their price.

In 2003, on the other hand, ten of 20 favourites won, at an astounding 50% strike rate. Since being upped to a four day festival with more races, 2022 was the best for favourites, with 12 of 28 scoring, while last season’s meeting was very close to the average: eight of 27 won at a 29.6% score.

So what about key stats for this year’s big races? 

Well, beware the Queen Mother Champion Chase favourite (sorry Jonbon!). Seven of the last nine renewals of the Wednesday showpiece have had an odds-on favourite, but incredibly six of those have lost, including two 2/9 favourites in Douvan (2017) and El Fabiolo last year.

You can have more faith in Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup though. Four of the last five favourites have returned successfully in the race, while 14 of the last 36 have won in all. That 38.9% strike rate is well above the week’s average and “Galopin The Great” is very likely to improve that further.