In the latest of GG’s Cheltenham Festival previews, Karl Hedley (@karlhedley1) analyses the main contenders in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle and gives us his next Cheltenham tips
ANALYSIS
This race was first run in 2009 and the Irish have taken the prize in five of the last six renewals. Gigginstown House Stud have a fine record and aside from winning the 2017 and 2018 renewals with Champagne Classic and Blow By Blow, they saddled the second and third in this last year behind impressive winner Early Doors.
Willie Mullins has taken the race three times since the race’s inception with Don Poli, Killultagh Vic and Sire Du Berlais.
In a race restricted to conditional jockeys, it has provided success for Jonjo O’Neill jnr, Donagh Meyler and JJ Slevin. Top Irish conditionals likely to be riding this time around include Darragh O’Keefe, Kevin Brouder and Sean O’Keefe. O’Neill jnr will be keen to follow up last year’s success, while Connor Brace, Ben Jones and Danny McMenamin are most feared of the British conditionals
Here, we’ll examine the chances of some contenders, specifically those who have been at least placed at listed level over hurdles, as they tend to do rather well. Most recent winners have been dropping back from three miles, so that is also something to take into account.
FLASH THE STEEL
Flash The Steel looks to be one of the better-fancied British entries for this race. He was down the field in a Grade 3 handicap over three miles at Haydock last time, but he might find himself better suited to a drop in class at this sort of trip.
He won a Grade 3 handicap at Haydock on bottomless ground and the form of that race has worked out particularly well with the likes of Champagne Court, Imperial Aura, Ballyandy and Indefatigable all coming out to win subsequently.
He might have to carry a big weight as a result but he is more than capable on his day and if there was soft ground on offer, he would be of even further interest.
BACK FLASH THE STEEL AT 16/1 HERE
CIEL DE NEIGE
Ciel De Neige bids to enhance the excellent strike rate of Willie Mullins in this race. He found himself in front far sooner than ideal at Sandown in a Grade 3 handicap just a couple of weeks ago and was picked off in the closing stages by Pic D’Orhy.
I’d expect him to be held up in order to see out the trip and slowly scythe his way through the field in order to take a hand in the finish. He remains far from exposed and while he doesn’t necessarily fit the moulds o previous winners, he is clearly going the right way and warrants respect if lining up.
BACK CIEL DE NEIGE AT 16/1 HERE
CONFLATED
Conflated may have slipped under the radar, but he has been racing against the likes of Envoi Allen and Asterion Forlonge in a couple of Grade 1s on his most recent starts.
This would be his first ever run in a handicap so he ought to be leniently treated. A drop in grade would certainly do his chances no harm and he looks decent each-way value at the current odds.
Conclusion
Given the continued success that Gigginstown House Stud have with targeting their lesser lights at this race, Conflated is certainly of interest. While he is just short of the highest level, he will be suited by taking on lesser opposition,
Gordon Elliott will certainly have him primed and ready for the occasion as he bids to follow up his recent successes of Blow By Blow and Champagne Classic. There is a race for him down the line and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him in the fray.
Karl Hedley’s Best Bet
CONFLATED 20/1 each-way WILLIAM HILL
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