In the latest of GG’s Cheltenham Festival previews, Andrew Mount (@trendhorses) analyses the key contenders in the Champion Bumper and gives us his next Cheltenham tips
Stats/trends
Nine of the last ten winners were aged five or six. Cue Card was the exception when taking this as a four-year-old in 2010.
Only 14 went to post last year but the other nine renewals featured at least 20 runners.
Those who had raced within the previous four weeks were 0 from 52. Since the year 2000, that figure is 0-93.
Those who had their prep race between 32 and 77 days ago were nine from 93 in the past ten years for a profit of £66.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£141.63 at Betfair SP).
All of the last ten winners had won their prep race. Those who were beaten last time out were 0-72. This century, the figure is one from 109.
Five of the last ten winners prepped at Leopardstown (x3) or Fairyhouse (x2).
Willie Mullins has won three of the last ten renewals (from 34 runners) for a profit of £35.00 to £1 at SP. Gordon Elliott has scored twice from six runners (+£5.00).
Since the year 2000, Willie Mullins is just one from 27 with runners to start shorter than 12-1 (Missed That, 7-2 when scoring in 2005).
Main Contenders
APPRECIATE IT
Made all in a 2m4f soft-ground bumper at Leopardstown on his debut for Willie Mullins and is now as short as 6-4 in the ante-post market after following up impressively in the Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival. Main market rival Eric Bloodaxe underperformed that day and, taking though that performance was, he looks short enough in the betting at this stage of proceedings.
BACK APPRECIATE IT AT 2/1 HERE
PANIC ATTACK
Was trained by Willie Mullins when bolting up in a Listed mares’ bumper at Market Rasen and has since been purchased by Bryan Drew and sent to David Pipe. Mares have won two of their ten starts in this race since the year 2000, for a profit of £24.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. She enters calculations.
BACK PANIC ATTACK AT 10/1 HERE
ISRAEL CHAMP
Another David Pipe inmate. Flopped at Worcester when 13-8 favourite on his Rules debut but has left that form well behind since fitted with headgear, landing the Listed bumper here at the November meeting and following up in another Listed contest at Ascot. He might have been a shade flattered by the Ascot win, as the track was massively favouring early pace and he was never out of the first two.
BACK ISRAEL CHAMP AT 12/1 HERE
SOARING GLORY
Was favourite in Israel Champ’s Ascot bumper but was ridden patiently and did well to finish second against the strong pace bias. Similar tactics had worked over the same course and distance the time before and at Warwick on his racecourse debut, a track where it’s never easy to win from off the pace. His ante-post odds range from 16-1 to 40-1 and he makes the shortlist.
BACK SOARING GLORY AT 40/1 HERE
ADRIMEL
Shortened in the betting after scoring at Doncaster on February 19 but Cheltenham might come too soon for Tom Lacey’s five-year-old who is now unbeaten in three starts if we include his point-to-point outing.
THE GLANCING QUEEN
Was my pick for this race last year, as Alan King’s mare had caught the eye at Ascot where she took the inside route on a day that wide runners enjoyed a huge advantage. She lined up at Cheltenham after an 82-day break and ran a fine 16-1 fifth to Envoi Allen before taking the Grade 2 mares’ bumper at Aintree. It will be some training performance if she can take this without a prep run but I’d have to have a small interest if she makes the line-up.
BACK THE GLANCING QUEEN AT 25/1 HERE
GENOLA
Won two bumpers at Auteuil before her very close third to Audacity here on New Year’s Day. She was left with plenty to do that day (the winner made all) and she may have been unlucky.
OCEAN WIND
Just ahead of Genola, when a neck second to Audacity on New Year’s Day won very easily in Listed company at Newbury next time and Roger Teal’s four-year-old colt is also considered.
Conclusion
It’s difficult to make concrete judgements without knowing the final entries but Appreciate It looks worth opposing given his yard’s modest record with short-priced runners in this contest (just one from 27 with those priced at 11-1 or shorter this century).
Panic Attack has possibilities for her new connections, while The Glancing Queen could well improve on last year’s fifth place. However, a tentative each-way vote goes to Jonjo O’Neill’s SOARING GLORY who had excuses when losing his unbeaten record at Ascot last time.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bet
SOARING GLORY 40/1 each-way BET365
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