Sir Gino might be the unluckiest jumps horse in training. But he is not alone among big name Cheltenham Festival absentees in recent seasons.
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No Fascinations & Irritations
Firstly though, it’s been a sad enough week for the racing world without my gauche fascinations and irritations to comment on it. Instead, I’ll simply encourage anyone reading to say a prayer for Michael O’Sullivan, as he remains in intensive care after his fall at Thurles last week.
Joe BloGGs
Sir Gino will miss the Festival for the second straight season and we can only hope he returns to race at all at this point given the infection reported to have spread within his hind leg. It would be a cruel shame were he to never race at jumps racing’s Mecca.
Henderson seems to have been riddled with misfortune in the last few years, with numerous runners ruled out at the 11th hour last term, with more aside too. More to the point, given the strength and quantity of Willie Mullins’ yard in comparison, Closutton-based horses rarely receive bad news in the build up to Cheltenham. They turn up, they win their races, they take the ferry back. At least that is how it often feels.
But do the numbers actually back that up? Is Henderson particularly unlucky, or just a victim of variance? It is not a piece of research I have seen done, so I have attempted to undertake it, looking at every Cheltenham Festival back to 2020 and seeing which horses were ruled out of the 19 non-handicaps (including the National Hunt Chase and Cross Country which have only become handicaps again this season), with the exclusion, with respect, of the Hunter Chase.
As a rule, only horses who were considered significant absentees from a specific race in the immediate run-up to Cheltenham have been included here. Energumene would have run in the Champion Chase last season, but he was ruled out for the entire campaign early, just as Impervious was with similar regard to the Mares’ Chase. Neither were included, as their lack of participation was known too far out.
The same goes for horses who ran in other races: we are not going back that far, but Vautour would not have been included as a Gold Cup absentee because he ran in the Ryanair Chase, nor is Lossiemouth among the non runners for last year’s Champion Hurdle for running 40 minutes later in the Mares’ event.
All clear? Then let us have a look at some findings.
53 Absentees from 2020-2025 Inclusive – 10 for Nicky Henderson
Nearly 20% of big race absentees since 2020 have belonged to Henderson. Sir Gino and Altior have both missed two Cheltenham Festivals at relatively short notice, with six of their stablemates also enjoying the action only on TV…
However… 7 of those came in 2024
The idea that Henderson is plagued by bad luck, or rules horses out too easily, truly is a case of a modern phenomenon taking hold. Last season was the annus horribilis: enforced absences due to the plight of his stable saw all of Constitution Hill, Jango Baie, Jonbon, Champ, Sir Gino, Shanagh Bob and Shishkin all skip their assignments at the last minute.
Overall though, his personal share of bad luck between 2020-2024 was consigned only to poor Altior, who missed the 2020 and 2021 editions of the Champion Chase. No other name of substance missed out on the fun if they were Seven Barrows based.
2024 was a barren year
The trials of the Henderson seven mean that 2024 looks a particularly barren year for superstars in hindsight. Recency bias may have a lot to do in terms of the reporting of horses missing out, but overall 18 horses missed their targets in the build-up 12 months ago. At least five of those could have been considered favourites for their respective races too: Marine Nationale (Arkle), Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle), Maughreen and Jeroboam Machin (Champion Bumper) and Sir Gino (Triumph Hurdle).
Had Henderson not pulled the majority of his firepower though, 2024 would only have been on par with the Covid Festival of 2021, which saw 11 horses fall by the wayside. Only Altior would have been considered a threat to favouritism that season though, with Annie Mc’s reported absence generously included by the press due to Chris Hughes’ part-ownership.
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Wed 29 Jan 2025Mullins has endured fair share of adversity
By virtue of training the most top level horses, Willie Mullins should be the handler forced to accept fate more than any other. Nevertheless, it stands to oppose the theory that it is Henderson who feels the greater pinch, as Mullins has had 15 horses ruled out of Cheltenham since 2020.
Only two of his horses missed the action due to late afflictions last term too (Maughreen and Allaho, excluding Energumene). As such, until last season, Mullins had actually suffered from significantly more turns of the screw than Henderson, with 13 injuries and illnesses to his runners, compared to just three within Seven Barrows’ walls.
Indeed, Mullins’ is the only yard which can point to multiple mischances in the same race: Saldier and Klassical Dream both missed the 2020 Champion Hurdle, with Chacun Pour Soi and Douvan likewise forced to miss that season’s Champion Chase.
Championship contests are often lacking – but the Arkle carries a kiss of death
Naturally, reporting on the Festival’s four championship races is of more interest than the Cross Country or the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. Nevertheless, there have been at least five big-race absentees from each of the daily showpieces since 2020: five in the Stayers’ Hurdle, six each in the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup, and seven in the Champion Chase.
No other contest in this period has witnessed more than four horses being ruled out. The 2020 Champion Chase suffered most, with Altior, Chacun Pour Soi and Douvan all boasting serious claims for victory for a race which ended up with five runners and in which Defi Du Seuil was beaten at 2/5. Almost inconceivably, given where we stand just five years later, all five eventual participants were trained in Britain.
Restraining from ante-post plays in the Champion Chase may be the wisest approach among any race at the Festival, although it pays to be hesitant when looking at the Arkle too. Three of the four names to have their Arkle dreams snatched before the start line were the market leaders in Ferny Hollow (2022), Marine Nationale (2024) and Sir Gino this year, while Energumene was a clear second favourite behind Shishkin when Mullins ruled him out in 2021.
Conclusions
Perhaps because it has often been his superstars who have been scratched from the Festival, Nicky Henderson has appeared to be the cartoon man under the stormy cloud. This has only been emphasised because Constitution Hill and Sir Gino have also missed Graded assignments pre-Festival too, and that’s just this season.
However, when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, it is mere variance that is chasing his runners scared right now. Every yard receives their unfortunate share on balance, with 29 Irish runners, 22 Brits and three for the rest of the world unable to take their part over recent seasons.
Some sacrifices have already been made in advance of the 2205 Festival, but so far, the picture looks rosy in terms of horses missing out. Let us keep fingers crossed that continues over the next four weeks.
And if you have an ante-post slip on Majborough in the Arkle, maybe cross your toes as well.
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Wed 05 Feb 2025Tip for the Weekend
Ah King William Rufus, you were so close to a 66/1 each-way return.
We’re going to back a repeat winner this Saturday: Yeah Man can win the Haydock National Trial for a second season in a row. Gavin Cromwell’s charge is officially 11lb higher in the handicap, but won with a degree of authority 12 months ago and the potential presence of Royale Pagaille, who would appear an intended runner at this stage, may mean he only carries 10st 8lb, 4lb less in weight than he did a year ago.
Should Royale Pagaille run, a number of principals will be out of the weights too. He looks rock solid as an each-way play regardless of who runs though and is the likeliest winner at this juncture.