GG tipster Kevin O’Malley fancies this big price pair to run very well at Cork on Sunday afternoon, check them out below...
Jessica Harrington has been enjoying a stellar season on the flat, particularly with her 2yo runners and her filly Chasing The Dawn is a warm order for this 6f maiden, worth a cool 16,500 Euro in total prize-money it must be noted.
Chasing The Dawn ran to an RPR (Racing Post Rating) of 76 when making her debut at Galway, which is a reasonable start. But it was backed up by a low Topspeed rating of just 14, which throws the form of that race into question. This can be further backed by the fact that the 1st, 3rd and 4th have all been beaten subsequently.
The horse I am keen to take a chance on his Llewellin Miss, a grey Gutaifan filly who recorded an RPR of 67 on her 7f, soft ground debut at the Curragh last month, this effort coupled with a more promising speed rating of 61. In an ordinary enough looking race today and in relation to the prices on offer, this effort stands out a bit and at around the 16/1 mark, I reckon she has thoroughly decent each-way claims under Gary Carroll.
It is also worth noting that trainer Joseph Murphy has a 24% strike rate with 2yos having their second run in recent seasons, recording a +£44 profit to level stakes with those six recorded winners from 25 runners. She also comes out second on the Proform ratings for the race.
No less than 26 horses will be rattling their way around the 7f Cork track very shortly after 4.20pm and as such, this 45-65 handicap is a fiendish affair to dissect in order to come to anything like a confident conclusion. However, there was a fair bit to like about the run of Knockgraffon Lass at Limerick last time out and she can be nibbled at each-way at around 20/1 here.
On her seventh career start having shown nothing to that point, this Kodiac filly ran 6th of 12 at 50/1 over 6f furlongs, recording a Racing Post Rating of 47 and a Topspeed rating of 36. This is poor stuff, no doubt, but in context of what it will take to win this modest handicap today, it was a fair effort and enough to suggest she can run well from a basement mark of 45 this afternoon.
The form of that Limerick run is starting to work out nicely too. The horse just in front of Knockgraffon Lass that day won nicely at Killarney next time out, while the horse two places behind the selection at Limerick came out next time and produced a career best run at Down Royal.
TODAYS BEST BETS
Lllewellin Miss 2.50 Cork - each-way 11/1 Unibet
Knockgraffon Lass 4.20 Cork - each-way 20/1 Unibet
Llewellin Miss is your Outsider of the Day for Sunday.
You can get in touch with Kevin via email: Kevin.OMalley@GG.CO.UK OR by finding him on Twitter: @KOM_GGRacing
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