We are set for a thrilling 2025 Grand National at Aintree on Saturday 5th April and our man Dave Young has produced an in-depth look at all the Grand National Trends for the world’s greatest steeplechase. Check out all the vital stats and information you need to unearth the Merseyside marathon winner.
The most valuable jumps run in Europe; The Grand National is a race which reaches far beyond the regular racegoer, and it’s been a household event that Brits have enjoyed since 1839!
The race has changed over the years with safety at the forefront, so I’ve looked at all running’s this century but also in comparison to the last 8 renewals which have been run at the new trip of 4m 2½f. The field size was also reduced last year which will have a longer-term impact on these trends, but for now, let’s see if we can work out what it typically takes to find the Grand National winner.
Key Trends
- Most likely to be aged 8 to 11-years-old, but recently no older than 9
- Favourites are profitable to back blind and most winners are 14/1 or shorter
- Look to horses carrying less than 11 stone
- Look to horses rated 146-150
- Probably has never run at Aintree or no more than twice
- Likely to have been ridden by the jockey before, but profitable to back blind if they’ve not won together before
- Most likely has NOT run in The Grand National before
Focused Trends:
AGE
- 7yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/8 (12.5%)
- 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 4/8 (50%)
- 9yo – 7/24 (29%) & 3/8 (37.5%)
- 10yo – 5/24 (21%) & 0/8 (0%)
- 11yo – 4/24 (17%) & 0/8 (0%)
- 12yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/8 (0%)
Since 2015, there hasn’t been a winner older than nine years old and so it looks like a turning trend. That said, it’s not profitable to back any age blind from the last eight renewals other than seven-year-olds which is thanks to 50/1 winner Noble Yeats.
What is consistent across both periods is that eight-year-olds are the running at the highest win to run rate and they’re right up there for place to run rate too.
STARTING PRICE
- Favourites – 6/24 (35%) & 3/8 (37.5%)
- Priced 12/1 or shorter – 10/24 (42%) & 5/8 (62.5%)
Favourites have been profitable to back blind both this century and in the last eight renewals with a 16% and 30% ROI, respectively.
There has been just one runner priced 4/1 or shorter (they were priced 4/1) and they won, and backing all runners priced 13/2 to 8/1 blind has also been profitable across both periods.
Moving outside these prices the strike rate decreases, and the losses worsen so while it might be nice to land a big-priced winner of the Grand National, six of the last seven winners were priced 14/1 or shorter.
RATINGS & WEIGHT CARRIED
- Winners with an OR between 146 and 150 – 8/24 (33%) & 6/8 (75%)
- Winners carrying less than 11 stone – 16/24 (67%) & 6/8 (75%)
Backing all runners with an Official Rating of between 146 and 150 has been profitable to back blind across both periods measured.
Two-thirds of winners and more have won carrying less than 11 stone, however, this isn’t a method that is profitable to back blind.
If you combine the two measures from above, you’d have found 6 winners this century but with a 22% losing return on investment, but all six of those winners came from the last eight renewals which shows a positive 7% ROI.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 7/24 (29%) & 5/8 (62.5%)
- Last ran 16-60 days ago – 22/24 (92%) & 6/8 (75%)
- Handicap last time out – 15/24 (63%) & 4/8 (50%)
Last time out winners have been a loss maker this century and are only showing a better losing ROI than runners who pulled up last time out. In the last eight renewals, last time out winners are showing a small £3 profit from 45 qualifiers.
Most winners, but also most runners, last ran 16-60 days ago and in recent years, as many winners of the Grand National came from outside of Handicap company as inside it, however the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham has now reverted back to being a Handicap so that’s probably now a red herring.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 17/24 (71%) & 4/8 (50%)
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree 1 or 2 times – 13/17 (76%) & 4/4 (100%)
In recent years it’s not been important to have seen Aintree racecourse before, however, across this century it’s been more relevant to have run no more than twice at the track and that is true of all the last eight winners too.
It’s been profitable this century to back all runners who had one or two runs at the track and a win here too blind, for a 110% ROI to SP or 261% to Betfair SP. It’s found two winners from the last eight too although that is running at a negative ROI.
FORM
- Had RUN at 3 miles 5 furlongs or further – 17/24 (71%) & 6/8 (75%)
- 3 or 4 runs this season – 12/24 (50%) & 6/8 (75%)
- 4 or more runs in the last 365 days – 21/24 (88%) & 6/8 (75%)
- Had NOT run in the Grand National before – 18/24 (75%) & 7/8 (87.5%)
Most winners had already run at 3m 5f or further in their career, but this wouldn’t be profitable to follow blind. Most recent winners had just three or four runs this season, but again that’s not profitable to back blind. Most winners had four or more runs in the last 365 days but, yes you guessed it, this isn’t profitable to back blind on its own either. It does profile the type of horse who wins the race though.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 20/24 (83%) & 5/8 (62.5%)
The four winners who were wearing headgear were sporting either cheek-pieces or blinkers but none of these systems would be profitable to back blind so you would just treat it on a horse-by-horse basis.
There has been one winner in first time cheek-pieces which was Noble Yeats at 50/1 so he’s going to skew the profit for those types for many years to come as this century we’ve only had 16 horses try.
JOCKEY
- Jockey has won on the horse before – 16/24 (67%) & 6/8 (75%)
- Jockey has ridden but NOT won on the horse before – 5/24 (21%) & 2/8 (25%)
When looking into the winning jockey’s I found it interesting that across both periods there have been more first-time jockey and horse partnerships than those where a jockey had previously ridden the horse, but had not won a race upon them.
If you backed all runners who had been partnered by their jockey but not to victory yet, you’d show an 12% ROI this century and 40% ROI in the last eight renewals.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2024 – I Am Maximus (FR)
- 2023 – Corach Rambler (IRE)
- 2022 – Noble Yeats (IRE)
- 2021 – Minella Times (IRE)
- 2019 – Tiger Roll (IRE)
- 2018 – Tiger Roll (IRE)
- 2017 – One For Arthur (IRE)
- 2016 – Rule The World (GB)
- 2015 – Many Clouds (IRE)
- 2014 – Pineau De Re (FR)
- 2013 – Auroras Encore (IRE)
- 2012 – Neptune Collonges (FR)
- 2011 – Ballabriggs (IRE)
- 2010 – Dont Push It (IRE)
- 2009 – Mon Mome (FR)
- 2008 – Comply Or Die (IRE)
- 2007 – Silver Birch (IRE)
- 2006 – Numbersixvalverde (IRE)
- 2005 – Hedgehunter (IRE)
- 2004 – Amberleigh House (IRE)
- 2003 – Montys Pass (IRE)
- 2002 – Bindaree (IRE)
- 2001 – Red Marauder (GB)
- 2000 – Papillon (IRE)
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