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Irish Derby Trends 2024 – All the stats for Curragh Group 1 Classic

We are set for a fabulous renewal of the Irish Derby at the Curragh on Sunday afternoon and our resident stats expert Dave Young is back to provide all the must-know trends for the Group 1 Classic. Check out all the vital statistics for the 1m 4f showpiece here…

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We’ve seen a total of 19 Epsom Derby winners do the double with Auguste Rodin adding his name to the honours roll last season. With City Of Troy not in this race, we’ll have to wait for the 20th and so, we’re going to need to look a little deeper into the recent trends to identify the most likely outcome.

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run 2 or more times that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run just once at 12 furlongs (only 4 had won)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 109+
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least 2 races
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners at least placed last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners last ran in The Epsom Derby (only 3 had won)

The Qualifiers

AMBIENTE FRIENDLY & LOS ANGELES come here as the Epsom Derby second and third and so it’s no surprise to see the pair taking up most of the market. We’ve had 7 of the last 10 winners coming from the front two in the betting so it’s highly likely that could happen again but is there anything else worth exploring in the anticipation of an upset?

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AIDAN O’BRIEN in isolation

14 of the 24 winners since the year 2000 were trained by Aidan O’Brien and only five were successfully completing the Epsom and Curragh Derby double. His leading hope would appear to be the Epsom Derby 3rd LOS ANGELES but if we look at the nine winners this century who did NOT win the Epsom Derby before taking this, are there any clues how we decide who is best of the rest?

  • 8 of the 9 had an OR of 111+
  • 7 of the 9 ran in The Epsom Derby last time out (3 of those placed in that race)
  • 7 of the 9 were sent off single figures for The Irish Derby

From these points we can surmise that still it looks most likely that if Aidan O’Brien is to land the race this year it’s going to come from LOS ANGELES, but while it’s reaching a little and using presumption, 2020 winner Santiago took in the Queen’s Vase before landing this race which is where GROSVENOR SQUARE was headed before the ground dried too much. The lack of that recent run means his OR is still under the 111+ these additional trends suggest but with 106 as his OR that is still higher than 2019 winner Sovereign, who came in with 105. He has at least run this season and with many of the yards’ horses coming forward significantly on their next appearance, it’s not out the realms of possibility that he can have progressed enough to make his mark here. He’s not far off being a single figure price which the additional trends hint at, so if there’s going to be a shock, GROSVENOR SQUARE will be it.

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