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Irish Oaks Trends – Fillies Classic Under the Microscope

Having first been run in the late 19th century, the Irish Oaks is cemented as a prestigious Group 1 in the 3yo filly calendar. Many runners and winners have come from the Epsom Oaks and plenty will head to the Yorkshire Oaks after, where they potentially face their elders.

As for this season’s renewal, Dave Young has looked at every running this century to profile what it takes to become an Irish Oaks winner with reference also to the last 10 renewals to keep an eye on any potential shifts in pattern.

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  • Will NOT come here undefeated and typically has been beaten more than once
  • Likely to have raced as a 2yo
  • Should have at least 2 runs this season and between 3 and 5 career runs
  • Probably has both won and lost this season
  • Will be rated 100+ and preferably rated 107+
  • Ideally ran between 22 and 50 days ago
  • At least placed last time out
  • If coming straight from the Epsom Oaks, most likely finished top 2 in that race

CAREER RUNS

  • ALL winners this century had been beaten in their career
  • Had raced as a 2yo – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Had between 3-5 career runs – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Had 2 or more career wins – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
  • Had been beaten more than once – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)

The vast majority of winners had raced as 2yo’s and had run between three and five times. We’ve had two maidens win the Irish Oaks but every other winner had at least two wins under the belt. Interestingly, there has been no unbeaten winner of this race this century and 70% had been beaten more than once.

FAVOURITES/PRICE

  • First favourites – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
  • First and second favourites – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
  • Priced 11/2 or shorter – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)

7 of the 8 winning favourites were priced 5/4 or shorter, including the last three renewals. With just five double-figure priced winners this century and just one of those priced greater than 14/1, it does suggest that the market has a reasonable handle on this race. Three of the five double-figure priced winners had won at the trip and the other two hadn’t tried yet.

DRAW

  • Drawn in the TOP half – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
  • Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)

There appears to be no bias in being drawn higher or lower, even looking at those drawn in the top three or bottom three will produce 13/24 vs 11/24 so I’d pay very little attention to the stall runners come from, unless there was a clear bias on the day.

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OFFICIAL RATING

  • Winners with an OR of 100 or more – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Winners with an OR of 107 or more – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)

We know this is a top-tier Group 1 for the fillies and that is confirmed in the winners Official Rating being over 100 in 90% of cases and 75% were rated 107 or higher.

LAST TIME OUT

  • Ran in the Epsom Oaks – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
  • Ran at 12 furlongs – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
  • Ran at 10 or 12 furlongs – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
  • Won last time out – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (70%)
  • Placed last time out – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Ran more than 3 weeks ago – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Ran in the last 50 days – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)

A good percentage of winners had won last time out, important too with reference earlier to likely having between 3-5 runs and being beaten two or more times. More than 80% of winners had at least placed last time out, so recent form again appears to be strongest. Really should have run at 10 or 12 furlongs last time out but I don’t expect that reduces the field much. Should have run between three weeks and 50 days ago but absolutely hasn’t run inside the last two weeks. 11 winners have come straight from Epsom and eight of those had finished in the top two.

COURSE FORM

  • Winners who had RUN at The Curragh – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • Winners who had WON at The Curragh – 4/7 (57%) & 2/2 (100%)

It’s not essential for the Irish Oaks winner to have raced at The Curragh before but the last three winners who had run here, had won here too.

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DISTANCE FORM

  • Winners who had RUN at about 12 furlongs – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
  • Winners who had WON at about 12 furlongs – 14/17 (82%) & 7/7 (100%)

70% of the winners had already raced at about the 1m 4f trip and more than 80% of those had won too. 13 of the 17 had run just once at the trip, but three of the last six had run twice.

SEASON FORM

  • Had raced at least 2 times – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
  • Had won a race – 21/24 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
  • Had been beaten – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)

Should have run at least twice this season and should have won a race but also very likely to have been beaten too.

GROUP FORM

  • Ran in a Group 2 or better Last Time Out – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
  • Ran in a Group 2 or better LTO or having first group race- 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)

Doesn’t need to have run in a Group 1 last time out but should have been at least in a Group 2 or is trying Group company for the first time.

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