Our new signing Karl Hedley has studied all the races live on ITV on Saturday and has come up with these cracking bets to make us money
Lillington finished tailed off at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance a couple of weeks ago following a bad mistake at the seventh fence. He never recovered after that and was struggling soon after. A return to two miles today certainly looks to be in his favour. He ought to relish this flattish track and soft going given all that we know about him.
There are question marks over many of his rivals who are untested on a soft surface. The obvious danger is Charmant who was ready to roll at the first time of asking last season. He has proven himself on soft ground and has won over slightly further in the past. Giving weight away to all of his rivals is no easy task especially after a 230-day break. Lillington should have come on for his recent outing and is worthy of a small each way play.
Organdi is a model of consistency and arrives here fit and well having won over this trip at Ludlow last time out. She already has the beating of several of these such as Misty Bloom, Inessa and Midnightreferendum. She deserves to be tested at this level and there is nothing to say that she cannot continue on the upgrade. Daniel Hiskett has formed a formidable partnership with the seven- year-old and the combination command utmost respect on ground that she loves having won on it three times previously.
Misty Bloom enjoys a nice pull at the weights and should finish much closer than the near ten lengths that separated them last time. She also has a lot in her favour including the ground and trip too. There have to be question marks over Danse Idol’s ability to give so much weight away to her rivals on her first start of the campaign. Paul Nicholls’ runners have been hit and miss first time out this season but whatever she does here, she will improve for the run.
This horse represents a yard in fantastic form at present and is the only one in today’s line up to have actually won on the anticipated soft ground. Dr Newland tends not to overreach with his horses and this race certainly looks well within their scope. Duke Street was a decent sort on the flat for Mark Johnston and it finally seems that after a frustrating period he has recaptured his winning edge. He is unbeaten in his last three starts and comes here fully fit.
I will be interested to see how Cepage runs here. This lightly raced seven-year-old put up a career best effort last December in the Caspian’s Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Venetia Williams has made a strong start to the campaign and she is renowned for training horses that specialise in soft ground. If he takes to it, he will prove a massive threat.
If You Say Run has a lot going for her particularly as she is a previous course winner. She has also won at the trip and on the forecast good ground. Unlike many of her stablemates, she was capable of winning on her first outing of the campaign this year beating Love Lane by a comfortable six lengths. She will only have improved for that run and this consistent mare has the ability of adding to that here.
Reserve Tank was slightly disappointing on his seasonal reappearance. He was far too keen for his own good at Chepstow. Colin Tizzard will need to have ironed out the quirks that appeared all too obvious on that occasion. Paul Nicholls ought to have a good line to that form through Posh Trish who finished last of the three runners in that Chepstow race. In what is her trainers' local track, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if she were to outperform her male counterparts.
Diomede Des Mottes was far from disgraced over an inadequate trip at Chepstow last month. Trying to make ground from so far back on that occasion proved one-step too far. He had to make do with fourth place in the end behind Thyme Hill and Fiddlerontheroof. This drop in grade and the step back up in trip should suit him far better and he is proven on soft ground. He is only lightly raced and it is impossible to rule out any further improvement. The yard are clearly in good heart following a double at Warwick earlier in the week and he has to enter calculations here.
Vive Le Roi could pose most problems, as he is likely to improve for his recent run at Stratford. That will have cleared any cobwebs and this likeable type has proved himself at the trip and on the ground in the past.
Fusil Raffles had his first run for seventy days when running away with a decent prize at Punchestown back in the spring. He is clearly capable of going well fresh so the lack of a recent run is not as much of an issue as it could have been. Daryl Jacob takes the reins once again and with an unlimited amount of potential he ought to prove far too good here.
Grand Sancy ran a fair race on his seasonal reappearance in a listed race at Kempton last time. He was beginning to tire In the closing stages though and took a hefty fall as a result. His confidence may well have been rocked by that error and he is best watched this afternoon.
Present Man has recorded back-to-back wins in this race and now comes in search of the hat trick. He recorded only one win all of last season but most importantly it was first time out in this race. Although most of the Paul Nicholls runners have looked to have needed their first run of the campaign, you should bear in mind that he will have been specifically primed for this race and despite a four-pound higher mark this time around, his experience around here will make him the one they all have to beat.
Should Present Man fail to live up to expectations, Walk In The Mill has been known to go well fresh in the past. He season will revolve around Aintree once again where he finished a creditable fourth to Tiger Roll in the Grand National last spring. He will relish conditions here today, has stamina in abundance and can make his presence known.
SATURDAY BEST BETS
LILLINGTON (1:30 Aintree - each way) (12/1 generally)
ORGANDI (1:50 Wincanton) (10/1 generally)
DUKE STREET (2:05 Aintree) (7/1 generally)
IF YOU SAY RUN (2:25 Wincanton) (7/2 Bet Victor)
DIOMEDE DES MOTTES (2:40 Aintree) (7/2 generally)
FUSIL RAFFLES (3:00 Wincanton) (4/7 generally)
PRESENT MAN (3:35 Wincanton) (13/2 William Hill)