The Betfred Cesarewitch is a 2m2f handicap worth a cool £250,000 in prize-money. Undoubtedly the weekend’s biggest race, 34 horses will hurtle their way around Newmarket. Take a look at our handy guide to help you pick the winner!!
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Statistically, this race is a real muddle! It is one of those rare big handicaps that genuinely anything can happen in terms of trends. Weight for example, 10 of the last 15 winners carried under 9st, but that still leaves 5 who carried 9st+ and a whole bunch of others who got into the frame carrying a big weight.
Age is another we can’t trim the field down with in terms of trends. Going back 20 years, every age from 3 through to 11 has won the Cesarewitch. Again, assessing the winning SPs gives us precious little to go on! Everything from 9/2F to 66/1 in recent years.
Perhaps the best trends to take relate to Stamina. 8 winners had won or been placed in a class 3 handicap or above over 1m 6f or further. 6 of the last 8 won or been placed a class 2 handicap over 2m.
From the top of the market, QUICK JACK and LOW KEY stand out like sore thumbs. The latter named 8yo is trained by David Pipe and won the Cesarewitch trial here over the course and distance in pretty impressive style. A stronger pace in this race will bring more horses into the equation late in the day, but he commands plenty of respect given his profile coming into this. At 7/1 with Betfred, he is the clear favourite as things stand Quick Jack is quite a horse, who continues to be a leading player in every handicap he turns up in under both codes! He went off at 5/1F for the Ebor but finished down the field; his first poor run for a long, long time. Considering he was 3rd in this last year and has been in tremendous nick this summer that run aside, it isn’t hard to see why he is 9/1 with the sponsors for this 34 runner event. Tony Martin also runs a horse with a corner to turn in Cassells Rock, and Heartbreak City, who is high in the betting on the back of his York win last time out, so the Irish handler has a strong hand.
Sir Mark Prescott saddles four, with Deauville Dancer, unexposed 4yo High Street, William Of Orange – who is a fair form pick – but also a real dark horse in MOSCATO, who has a very consistent record and just found the pace far too slow in the trial race behind Low Key last time out. The conditions of this test could really suit him, particularly if the ground dries out a bit. 20/1 makes him an interesting contender.
Other notable dark horses include William Knight’s GAVLAR who had a good A/W campaign and was 4th in the trial for this. Again a stronger pace will suit him and he is well drawn in stall 2. Lucy Wadham is always worth noting in a big handicap and she’s booked the services of Oisin Murphy for her 6yo NOBLE SILK, whose chance will increase the more the ground dies out.
Early Prices, C4 Best Price Promise & BOG
bet365 have the earliest prices of any of the main bookmakers, with most handicaps priced up the evening before racing and the rest have prices up by 9am! When racing is on Channel 4, bet365 will update their prices to ensure they’re offering the best odds available on all runners.
Also, if you back a winner at 4/1+ on any race shown live on C4, bet365 will give you a free bet to the same stake on the next live C4 race!