AintreeThe Randox Grand National takes place on Saturday, with the world's most famous Steeplechase attracting millions of viewers around the globe. Our stats guru, Andrew Mount has taken a look over the record books and picked out his key stats and trends to take into cosideration when making your selection for the big race. Check out his breakdown below and also how to get a bet £10 - Get £20 bonus, with BoyleSports too


Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Aintree 5.15pm, Saturday, April 10th)


KEY STATS AND TRENDS


Age:

The last ten winners were aged between eight and 11. Those aged 12 or older were 0-41. Seven-year-olds were 0-21.

Days Since Last Run:

Those returning from a break of more than eight weeks were 1-85 in the past ten years. The majority of recent winners had raced within the past six weeks.

Horse Sex:

Only four mares ran but they included Magic Of Light, runner-up at 66-1 in 2019.

Course Last Time Out:

Five winners ran at Cheltenham last time out, though backing all 121 who did would have resulted in a loss of £42.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The other winners ran at Kelso (2-15, +£67.00), Warwick (1-6, +£9.00), Haydock (1-28, +£6.00) and Naas (1-13, +£21.00).

Prep Run:

Nine of the last ten winners finished in the top six in their prep race. The exception was Don’t Push It who pulled up in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham.

Number Of Runs In The Past Year:

Those who’d had just three or fewer runs in the past 12 months were just one from 130.


Headgear:

Seven of the last ten winners had no form of headgear. The other three all wore a tongue-tie or a tongue-time in combination with other headgear.

Running Style:

Seven of the last ten winners were ridden patiently, three were prominent. Pacesetters failed to notch a win. Those who made the running in their prep race were 0-40. Bad news for supporters of current market leader Cloth Cap.

Spring factor:

Auroras Encore, the 66-1 winner in 2013, was a real Spring horse whose record in April or May prior to his Grand National appearance stood at 1591F112 (4-8), with the latest defeat by a head in the 2012 Scottish National. This is a factor that rarely gets a mention but is worth considering. 2011 winner Ballabriggs had won twice in March, 2012 victor Neptune Collonges was a triple previous winner in April (twice in Grade 1 company), Pineau De Re (2014) had won in April of the previous year, almost to the day, Many Clouds – successful in 2015 – lacked a previous victory in the spring but had made the frame in Graded company in March/April on more than one occasion, 2016 winner Rule The World also lacked spring wins but had finished second in the previous year’s Irish Grand National on April 6th. One For Arthur won in March the year before his 2017 win and dual winner Tiger Roll (2018/2019) had won four times from March to May prior to the first of his Aintree wins.

System:

A simple way to narrow the field is to only consider those aged eight to 11, who raced within the past six weeks and finished in the top six last time out under a prominent or a hold-up ride (i.e. they didn’t make the running). Since 2013 (seven renewals) this has found the win six times from 80 qualifiers for a profit of £89.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had raced more than three times in the past 12 months were six from 67 for a profit of £102.00. Checking the qualifiers for previous spring form could help reduce the shortlist further.

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