There may be changes to the running order and the traditional prep runs for Royal Ascot may be out of the window as a result of the impact the coronavirus has had on sporting fixtures, but it can still be worth taking a look at the key trends. We’ve looked at the last few winners ahead of Royal Ascot Day 1 to see who we think fits all the key trends.
Buckingham Palace Handicap (1.15 Royal Ascot)
This race has been reinstituted to Royal Ascot after originally being run between 2002 and 2014. The 2005 race was run at York. Here are the key trends from when the race was run:
12/12 winners priced at 8/1 or bigger
11/12 failed to win on previous run
10/12 Aged between four and six
9/12 carried 9st or less
9/12 rated 90 or higher
Not a lot to go on here given this race has not been run for six years so trends backers may want to sit this out. The only horse who fits all the criteria is Brian Epstein, who finished second on his comeback run, is aged four and fits the ratings and weight band,
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QUEEN ANNE STAKES (1.50 Royal Ascot)
11/12 had at least one previous win over a mile
11/12 had run at least four times over a mile
10/12 came from first three in the betting
10/12 had at least 9 previous runs
9/12 were rated 112 or higher
9/12 had previously won at Group 1 level
8/12 winners aged 4
Class tends to out in this contest and it pays to concentrate on experienced runners at the head of the market. Circus Maximus ticks all the boxes concerning age, rating, experience over the trip and having won at this meeting last year. He can strike for trainer Aidan O’Brien here
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RIBBLESDALE STAKES (2.25 Royal Ascot)
10/12 had at least three previous Flat runs
9/12 winners from top 3 in betting (four favourite or joint favourite)
9/12 winners were rated 98 or higher
7/12 had at at least two previous Flat wins
6/12 had won at Group 1 level
Again it pays to look at the head of the market with none of the past 12 winners priced bigger than 10/1. Only a few of these have managed to hit the magic rating of 98 and of those only Miss Yoda at the top of the market has the requisite two wins.
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KING EDWARD VII (3.00 Royal Ascot)
12/12 had won at least once
10/12 had run at least four times previously
8/12 from the top three in the betting, only two were favourite
7/12 had a rating of 104 or higher
7/12 had at least one run over 1m4f
Only the two Aidan O’brien-trained runners have reached the required standard according to ratings and preference is for the second string Arthur’s Kingdom who has some experience over middle distance
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KING’S STAND STAKES (3.35 Royal Ascot)
10/12 rated 111 or higher
10/12 at least 12 previous flat runs
10/12 had previously been successful at Group level
9/12 had at least two previous wins over 5f
8/12 had run at least twice at Ascot
8/12 winners aged three, four or five
7/12 from top three in the betting
Most of this field can be immediately ruled out given they are rated lower than 111 and of those with the required rating, only Battaash, Glass Slippers and Oxted fulfil the class criteria of having won at Group level. Battash has never won at Ascot so it could be worth bending the trends by taking him on with Glass Slippers who has never won at the track but is improving fast.
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DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (4.10 Royal Ascot)
11/12 had previously won at Group level
10/12 had at least seven previous Flat runs
10/12 had at least three previous wins
10/12 aged four
10/12 had at least four previous runs over a mile
9/12 rated 107 or higher
9/12 had at least one previous run at the course
8/12 had won at least twice over a mile
Plenty of these are too inexperienced according to the trends to figure but if that trend is going to be ignored, it should be this year given the truncated season. So of those horses rated 107 or higher and have a previous Group win to their name it could pay to focus on Lavender’s Blue who has won at Group 3 l3vel and has had a few chances over a mile.
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ASCOT STAKES (4.40 Royal Ascot)
16/18 carried 9st or more
14/18 won by a trainer better known for jumps exploits
12/18 had won over at least 2m on the Flat
11/18 aged either four or five
A difficult race from a trends perspective as no horse fits all the key trends. If we take them in order and look for a horse rated 9st or more trained by a predominantly jumps trainer than we’ll need to choose between Verdana Blue, Fair Mountain, Carntop, Yaa Salaam and Coeur De Lion. None of those fit the age bracket or distance winner but David Pipe has won the race three times, so Yaa Salaam could be massively overpriced
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