The second Classic of the flat season and this time if the fillies on show. There has been no winning favourite since 2016 so with that in mind, I’ve looked at all runnings this century and with a view to the last 10, to see if we can find the winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Be wary of favourites and those in the Top 3 of the betting
- Backing runners priced between 17/2 and 20/1 is profitable to back blind
- Has an OR of 106 or higher but unlikely to be the Top-Rated runner
- Finished Top 4 last time out but probably didn’t win last time out
- Respect those who last ran on this course but didn’t win last time out
- Probably hasn’t won 50% or more of their races
- Is yet to win at a mile, but has won a Group race
- Has recorded an RPR of 103 or higher
Focused Trends
STALL
- Lowest three stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Highest three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
There doesn’t seem to be any draw bias in the 1,000 Guineas but it is worth noting there has been no winner this century from the lowest drawn stall.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- NOT from the Top 3 in the betting – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- SP of 17/2 to 20/1 – 14/25 (56%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites don’t have the best record in this race and it’s back to 2016 to find the last winning favourite. Maybe we’re due one?
Following the Top 3 in the betting is a significant loss-maker too with around 70% of winners coming outside of those. There does seem to be a ceiling though, and the best practice appears to be following runners priced between 17/2 and 20/1 which have found at least half of the winner and are showing a £63 profit this century and £20 profit in the last decade (both around a 50% ROI)
OFFICIAL RATING (since 2009)
- Winners with an OR of 106 or higher – 12/16 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 109 or higher – 9/16 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Since 2009, every winner held an OR going into the race and three-quarters of those had an OR of 106 or higher.
Backing the Top-Rated runners in this race has found just 4 winners this century but only shows a -3% ROI, whoever just 1 of those came in the last decade for a -80% ROI.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran in the last 30 days – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
Last time out winners are heavy loss-makers to follow blind but it’s been profitable to follow all runners who placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out.
More winners had NOT run this season, however it’s been profitable to back runners who last ran inside 30 days and they have taken half of the last 10 renewals.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newmarket (Rowley) – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at Newmarket (Rowley) – 7/16 (44%) & 3/6 (50%)
- Winners who last ran at Newmarket (Rowley) – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
More than half of winners had already run on the Newmarket Rowley Mile course and around half of those had won here too.
Two-thirds or more of winners last ran on this course but it’s a loss-maker to follow last time out winners too. However, this century shows a 32% ROI for following runners who last ran here but did NOT win last time out. This increases to 146% ROI in the last decade with 5 of the last 10 winners found.
FORM
- Had won 50% or more of their races – 12/25 (48%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had run at 8-furlongs – 17/25 (68%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had NOT won over 8-furlongs or further – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Peak RPR of 103 or higher – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Has won a Group race – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
Only two winners of this race were unbeaten, and most winners had NOT won half or more of their races, especially so in more recent renewals.
Most winners had not already won at a mile but most winners had recorded an RPR of 103 or more and had already won a Group race.
SIGNIFICANT RACES ON LAST RUN (and last year the Guineas winner took in the race)
- Nell Gwyn Stakes – 4 winners from 80 runners (2022)
- Newmarket Fillies’ Mile – 4 winners from 33 runners (2020)
- Cheveley Park Stakes – 4 winners from 28 runners (2022)
- Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes – 3 winners from 23 runners (2017)
- Fred Darling – 2 winners from 53 runners (2024)
- Rockfel Stakes – 2 winners from 19 runners (2006)
There are a few paths into this race that are profitable but the Nell Gwyn and Leopardstown Trial Stakes who the biggest blind profits with £25 and £26 respectively.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2024 – Elmalka (GB)
- 2023 – Mawj (IRE)
- 2022 – Cachet (IRE)
- 2021 – Mother Earth (IRE)
- 2020 – Love (IRE)
- 2019 – Hermosa (IRE)
- 2018 – Billesdon Brook (GB)
- 2017 – Winter (IRE)
- 2016 – Minding (IRE)
- 2015 – Legatissimo (IRE)
- 2014 – Miss France (IRE)
- 2013 – Sky Lantern (IRE)
- 2012 – Homecoming Queen (IRE)
- 2011 – Blue Bunting (USA)
- 2010 – Special Duty (GB)
- 2009 – Ghanaati (USA)
- 2008 – Natagora (FR)
- 2007 – Finsceal Beo (IRE)
- 2006 – Speciosa (IRE)
- 2005 – Virginia Waters (USA)
- 2004 – Attraction (GB)
- 2003 – Russian Rhythm (USA)
- 2002 – Kazzia (GER)
- 2001 – Ameerat (GB)
- 2000 – Lahan (GB)