The first classic of the flat season is upon us and it’s not removed from memory that good things don’t always land this race after City Of Troy’s disappointment 12 months ago. It was a great reminder though that is a race with real depth, but of course there is an element of the unknown.
What we do know though, is what’s happened in previous renewals, so I’ve looked at all runnings this century and with a view to the last ten, to see if we can work out who might come out on top this year.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw isn’t a dealbreaker, but the lowest three stalls have accounted for 40% of winners in the last decade
- Likely to come from the Top 5 in the betting
- Will hold an OR of 109 or higher but unlikely to be the highest rated runner
- Will have recorded an RPR of 110 and likely to be a Group winner
- Should have won last time out, ideally not at this course
- Will have won over 7-furlongs or 8-furlongs
Focused Trends
STALL
- Lowest three stalls – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Highest three stalls – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
I wouldn’t think there’s too much by way of a stall bias, but that said, 40% of winners have come from the lowest three stalls which is consistent across both this century and in the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 5 in the betting – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Favourites are NOT profitable to back blind across either period however 4th and 5th favourites are.
Most winners come from the Top 5 in the betting which has been profitable to follow blind across both periods with help from last years winner Notable Speech who was 5th in and sent off at 16/1
OFFICIAL RATING (since 2011)
- Winners with an OR of 109 or higher – 14/14 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 113 or higher – 10/14 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
There have been multiple winners of the 2000 Guineas earlier this century who did not hold an OR going into the race. Since 2011, every winner did have one, and they all held an OR of 109 or higher. Most of those winners held an OR of 113 or higher.
Including all those without and OR, there have been 6 winners this century who held the highest OR for a negative ROI of -24%. In the last decade, just 2 winners held the highest OR in the field and they show a negative ROI of -35%
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Last ran 121-365 days ago – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners have been profitable to back blind across both periods with a 33% ROI in the last decade alone.
ALL winners bar one placed top 3 last time out, the other unseated in his last start and was the only runner to come into the race under those circumstances.
Most runners, but also most winners, last ran between 121 and 365 days ago and all other winners ran inside the last 30 days if having run inside this window.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newmarket (Rowley) – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at Newmarket (Rowley) – 6/12 (50%) & 2/6 (33%)
- Winners who last ran at Newmarket (Rowley) – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
It’s around half of winners who had already raced on the Newmarket Rowley Mile course but of those it’s around half or less who had won here too.
Only a small number of winners last ran on this course, but most runners tick that box. They hold the lowest winning strike rate of any last ran track that has produced a winner of this race. Even looking at last time out winners who last ran here, it’s showing a -62% ROI this century and -70% in the last decade. Conversely, last time out winners who did NOT run at this course show a 116% ROI in the last decade, and 23% this century.
FORM
- Had won 60% or more of their races – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had run at 8-furlongs – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won over 7-furlongs or further – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Peak RPR of 110 or higher – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Has won a Group race – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
9 winners were unbeaten coming into this race but most winners had won 60% or more of their career starts. It’s not essential to have run over 8-furlongs before now but it is significant to have won over at least 7-furlongs.
Almost all winners had recorded an RPR of at least 110 and most winners had already won a Group race.
TRAINERS WITH 2 OR MORE WINS BOTH THIS CENTURY AND THE LAST DECADE
- Aidan O’Brien – 9 & 4
- Charlie Appleby – 2 & 2
- Andrew Balding – 2 & 2
Aidan O’Brien is a generational talent, but he does show a small loss if backing all his runners blind here. Both Charlie Appleby and Andrew Balding have tasted multiple successes in the last decade and each of these are profitable to back blind, albeit from a small sample size.
SIGNIFICANT RACES ON LAST RUN (and last year the Guineas winner took in the race)
- Futurity Trophy – 4 winners from 21 runners (2019)
- Greenham Stakes – 3 winners from 50 runners (2023)
- Dewhurst Stakes – 3 winners from 50 runners (2016)
- Craven Stakes – 2 winners from 52 runners (2004)
- National Stakes – 2 winners from 12 runners (2014)
- Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes – 2 winners from 8 runners (2021)
There are a few paths into this race but it’s only the Futurity Trophy and Leopardstown Trial Stakes which show a profit to follow blind this century.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Notable Speech (GB)
- 2023 – Chaldean (GB)
- 2022 – Coroebus (IRE)
- 2021 – Poetic Flare (IRE)
- 2020 – Kameko (USA)
- 2019 – Magna Grecia (IRE)
- 2018 – Saxon Warrior (JPN)
- 2017 – Churchill (IRE)
- 2016 – Galileo Gold (GB)
- 2015 – Gleneagles (IRE)
- 2014 – Night Of Thunder (IRE)
- 2013 – Dawn Approach (IRE)
- 2012 – Camelot (GB)
- 2011 – Frankel (GB)
- 2010 – Makfi (GB)
- 2009 – Sea The Stars (IRE)
- 2008 – Henrythenavigator (USA)
- 2007 – Cockney Rebel (IRE)
- 2006 – George Washington (IRE)
- 2005 – Footstepsinthesand (GB)
- 2004 – Haafhd (GB)
- 2003 – Refuse To Bend (IRE)
- 2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE)
- 2001 – Golan (IRE)
- 2000 – Kings Best (USA)