Another of our tipsters has a key multiple locked and loaded for you to follow. Today, Dave Young gives you four bets that simply must go together as he looks to guide you to some winners next week.
I’d say there’s no comparison to the Cheltenham Festival in terms of realistic betting opportunities and the Lucky 15, for all it might be a bit of a dreamers bet, can offer some good fun and a way to split up the 4 days, and the 28 races.
I wouldn’t be the biggest multiple backer these days, but I do still enjoy some block bets and the occasional lottery type ticket stakes for the chance to land a touch. All that is with the knowledge that sometimes it’s hard enough to get a winner, let alone 2 or more together.
Still, I have strong views across the week so I’m happy to share a Lucky 15 I’ve personally struck, in case the entire, or even just legs from it, might appeal to you too.
Ultima Handicap Chase – The Changing Man 6/1
I really could just keep writing column after column about this horse and his chance in the Ultima but you can check out what I had/have to say in a previous entry from my Ante-Post book, where the logic still applies – Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – Changing Is a Changed Man & Can Land the Ultima – GG.co.uk
THE CHANGING MAN handles any ground anyway, but the drying conditions will suit him as much as anything else in the race and there’s going to be plenty of pace on which will suit him too. Providing he gets into a rhythm early, I think he’s got as much in hand as any other runner and while he’s had the 10 runs over fences, I’d still say he’s quite unexposed being a horse who has looked like he might lack a little confidence.
His latest win hasn’t been given the respect it deserved by the handicapper but that’s to our benefit. He’s going to have taken a big boost from getting his head in front, but also in slamming his rivals so there’s just everything to like about his chance and if this wasn’t a Festival handicap I think he’d be even shorter still.
National Hunt Chase – Transmission 7/1
Another runner who has already been posted in the Ante-Post book this season is TRANSMISSION who is another horse who would handle any ground, but this drying forecast will certainly not inconvenience him, whereas it might just do that for the Irish rivals.
Again, I won’t delve into the depth I did in my previous column but you can check that out here – Cheltenham Ante-Post Book – Back 9/1 Selection in New-Look National Hunt Chase – GG.co.uk
I think this race is going to be won by a type who relishes the track, the trip and the ground. That might sound very obvious to say, but a lot of the handicaps at Cheltenham, and especially the Novice ones, tend to go to a horse with loads in hand who have been able to hide somewhat prior to the big day.
3 miles and 6 furlongs isn’t every horse’s bag and I don’t think just any horse can become a good horse at this type of trip and Transmission has proven himself to be a dour stayer. His trainer has done well targeting races in the past and it very much looks like this has been on the agenda since the race condition changes were announced just before the season started.
Coral Cup – Be Aware 7/1
The drying forecast and earlier course form for BE AWARE is enough to make his chance as clear as day in this race and while it’s never easy to land a big handicap at The Festival, Dan Skelton has unlocked the secret to this race in the last two renewals and that ability carries forward into races like the County Hurdle too.
He’s only been tried once at further than 2 miles but that was a good effort last March for which he was taking that race in on the way to the Novices Handicap Final in Sandown where he was only beaten half a length. Add onto that run being one where they probably weren’t trying to show their hand so it can easily be upgraded. His run in Ascot after a very good second placed effort to the now 150 rated Burdett Road can be too, as it probably just came too quick. For all that the Greatwood is a good line into that Ascot race, it tends to be something who didn’t run close to the winner that picks it up and that was true again this time round.
He is a bit of free going type and he is a hold up horse who probably doesn’t want to be in too much cover and short of room, but his run in that Novices Final last season was a 20 runner affair and I think while he’s still the price he is, it’s more than considered because without any issue, I think he’d be much shorter.
Martin Pipe – Kopeck De Mee 3/1
This horse wouldn’t have been very well known until just a couple of months ago, but he’s been picked up by JP McManus and he’s been sent to Willie Mullins so that’s a good chunk of the case made. The new rules for open handicaps at the Festival mean that you must have 5 runs before now which means the days of hiding a very good horse in plain sight might just be beyond us.
This horse is probably the example of what connections might be looking to source going forward. Ex-French recruits have long been popular types for potential Festival success but all that aside, KOPECK DE MEE looks like a very well handicapped horse after his 136 opening mark which is given by the agreed conversion rate by the BHA. On this alone, using the old method he’d be rated 149 or 150 and then you start to delve into his form, and you see a big line through Karam Le Rouge into Kitzbuhel who is a 153 rated runner for Closutton himself.
His last three runs in France which came last spring were very good, and he looked like a step up in trip would bring even more improvement out of him. There’s no doubt he’s capable of much better than his mark of 136 might suggest, and if you wanted to have a final leg in a multiple bet riding on one horse at a fair price, this lad is absolutely that. I think he’ll go off sub 2/1 and he’s a good to soft ground winner already so whatever the going description, it will not impact his chance.
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