Although it has not produced a winner of the Triumph Hurdle for some time, the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle remains an informative race in guiding punters towards the top juvenile hurdlers in Britain. Six go to post this year, with the result potentially having ramifications on Cheltenham Festival betting markets…
Now a talented novice chaser, Kalif Du Berlais won this as the odds-on favourite for Paul Nicholls last season.
MONDO MAN
(Gary & Josh Moore/Caoilin Quinn)
Flat performers of the quality of Mondo Man do not often go hurdling these days, but the Moores are fortunate to have a horse with evident quality on their hands. He was a runner-up at Group 3 level, finished fifth in the French Derby and fourth at Royal Ascot among his better efforts on the level.
His hurdles bow came at Ascot in January in which he bumped into the latest talking horse out of Nicky Henderson’s yard in Lulamba. Despite receiving 10lb, Mondo Man could finish only second, but that could still prove very high class form given the winner is favourite for the Triumph Hurdle and the fifth won a Listed race next time out. He is undoubtedly the likeliest winner as a result of that.
OPEC
(James Owen/Sam Twiston-Davies)
Officially rated 49lb below Mondo Man on the flat, the gap between Opec and her aforementioned rival will almost certainly be far smaller over hurdles regardless of the result on Saturday. James Owen’s filly won her first three races over timber, including a Listed fillies’ race at Newbury in November.
A front-runner who is slick over her hurdles, she was only seventh under tougher conditions at Chepstow in December. That looks like a form blot overall and she may have got bogged down on soft ground. Back on a quicker surface, her rivals might not want to give her too much rope, though she is only getting 2lb from Mondo Man due to past achievements.
ST PANCRAS
(Toby Lawes/Kevin Brogan)
St Pancras could not have concluded his flat career on any more of a high, winning by seven lengths at Southwell back in October. He may return to the flat, but has begun his hurdles life in decent form too. He was only fifth to Lulamba (about 17 lengths behind Mondo Man) at Ascot, but improved dramatically to win the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh earlier this month.
How much that form is worth is debatable, but it was definitely an improvement and that extra improvement could well stand to him here. 17 lengths is a big margin to make up with Mondo Man even with that extra start though, and he also has to concede that rival 5lb due to that Listed triumph.
SAUVIGNON
(Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden)
Unsurprisingly for this meeting, Paul Nicholls has recorded a record number of victories in this race with six in all. One of those came last year and Sauvignon is a French import just like Nicholls’ last five winners of this race, but did not hit the right notes on debut for the yard when he pulled up at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle Trial.
Blueking d’Oroux was pulled up in similar circumstances for the same connections two seasons ago, so it is not impossible that his form turns around. His form in France is particularly useful, so he should improve at some point. If he has now acclimatised, he could be the most dangerous opponent to the favourite, but faith would be required.
THE FIELD
Only two more runners go in the race. Mambonumberfive pulled up in the same race as Sauvignon and also has some substance to his form from France, albeit slightly less so. He is another who could step forward though it seems unlikely, while Bursinel is the sole Irish raider. He looks a big outsider on paper, but he had comparable flat form to those coming from that sphere and was not disgraced at Catterick last time.
VERDICT
The likeliest winner is MONDO MAN, second to Lulamba on debut and who shaped as if he could be a big improver for the experience. The form is working out well and any step forward would be enough unless Sauvignon can leave his lifeless stable debut behind. With the Nicholls yard still yet to hit full stride, he is still opposable, although would be the biggest danger on his French form. Opec may well finish second as a result, back on better ground and with the lead likely easy to gain.
- Mondo Man
- Opec
- Sauvingon
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