Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle here which has produced Spring Festival winners not only in Cheltenham but also in Aintree and Punchestown. All eyes will be on the Nicky Henderson final declarations, so I’ll look at the angle with his runners going forward too.
To get started though, I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can see which boxes need to be ticked to take this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Unlikely to be priced bigger than 4/1 and respect favourites
- Probably won last time out but not essential if sent off favourite
- Has 2 or fewer runs over hurdles, unless sent off favourite
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Priced 9/4 or shorter – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade and they operated at a 60% strike rate with a 60% ROI in the last decade alone.
Runners priced 9/4 or shorter, which will encompass those favourites, are profitable to back blind and odds-on favourites have over a 70% strike rate.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
Winning last time out isn’t essential but of the 11 who didn’t this century, 6 were sent off as favourite for the race regardless of the defeat last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Kempton – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (20%)
- Winners who had RUN and WON at Kempton – 4/7 (57%) & 3/4 (75%)
Most winners of this race won’t have run at Kempton but those who have course experience ideally will have winning course experience too.
SEASON FORM
- Were unbeaten this season – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 2 RUNS or less this season – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
For runners who were unbeaten, I’ve included both Zarkander and Zubayr who came in having their hurdle debuts. Still, it’s not essential to have not lost a race over hurdles yet, but I would certainly say it’s preferable, and that’s an obvious statement regardless of trends.
Most winners had no more than 2 runs over hurdles before taking this. Of those with 3 or more runs, the 5 of the 9 who ticked that box were sent off as favourite.
TRIUMPH HURDLE RECORD
- 5 winners of this went onto win the Triumph
Since 1997 there have been 19 winners who tried to contest the Triumph hurdle after and 5 won for a £17.25 return to £1 stakes or a 91% ROI. Binocular went onto the contest the Supreme where he finished second as his owner had Franchoek who was an even money beaten favourite in the Triumph that season. Binocular might have just won that years Triumph.
NICKY HENDERSON RECORD
- Winners this century – 4/21 (-£6.02)
- Winners in the last decade – 1/7 (-£2)
- Favourites this century – 2/5 (+£1.73)
With the chance that current Triumph Hurdle favourite Lulamba might run here, I wanted to share some insight into Nicky Henderson and his record.
The 2 winning favourites this century for Nicky Henderson were Fusil Raffles and Binocular. Binocular, as mentioned above, went onto contest the Supreme but I feel he might have won the Triumph in hindsight. Fusil Raffles missed Cheltenham but came back to win the 4-yo Juvenile hurdle in Punchestown after.
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