19 fences are to be jumped in this Grade 1 staying chase which has held that Grade 1 status since 2010.
There are often beaten Gold Cup runners who come here or even those who skip Cheltenham with a preference for this Festival instead. What is consistent though, is that this is always a competitive race, and it takes a very good horse to land it.
I’ve looked the winners from this century and the last 10 renewals, to help whittle down the most likely winner of the Aintree Bowl.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will likely be 8 to 10-years-old (Profitable to back blind this century)
- Respect favourites and especially runners with an SP of 13/8 to 9/4
- Should have an OR of 168 or higher but doesn’t need to be the top-rated runner
- Unlikely to have won last time out (respect runners who unseated LTO)
- 6 of the last 10 winners were beaten in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out but only 1 of the last 10 winners was beaten in the Ryanair
- Will have 3-5 runs and 1-2 wins this season
- Should already be a multiple Grade 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
Remarkably, you’d could have backed all runners aged 8, 9 and 10-years-old to make a profit for each. 10-year-olds have the highest strike-rate across both periods.
Place strike-rates are fairly well balance in the last 10 running’s but while 7-year-olds are not the most prolific winners, they have held the highest place strike-rate this century
PRICE
- Favourites – 10/24 (42%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Priced 13/8 to 9/4 – 6/24 (25%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last 10 running’s. You’d make the best ROI if you backed all runners priced between 13/8 and 9/4 which has a 60% strike-rate this century rising to 70% in the last 10.
RATINGS – (Since 2008)
- Winners with an OR of 168 or more – 12/16 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners holding the highest OR in the field – 5/16 (31%) & 5/10 (50%)
Class does prevail in this race; we saw that hinted at in the price data but with 9 of the last 10 winners holding an OR of 168+ and 75% of the winners since 2008 ticking that box it’s even clearer now. Backing all runners with an OR of 168+ has shown a £25 profit since 2008 and £9 from the last 10 running’s. That’s an 80% and 44% ROI respectively.
Backing the runner with the highest OR in the field has found half of the last 10 winners but only one since 2019 and none between 2008 and 2013 inclusive. That said, it’s shown a very small loss of 3% ROI since 2008 and shows a 45% positive ROI from the last 10 running’s but it’s clearly not essential.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Second last time out – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners have a bad record in this race with the last 13 winners having failed to win last time out. Plenty of winners placed 2nd on their latest outing which has been a profitable system to back blind, but for small profits across each period.
Curiously, the 2 runners who unseated last time out in the last 10 running’s both won this race and 3 of the 5 who fit that criteria this century won the race too.
Most winners will have come from Cheltenham but that is true of most runners as well. If you had backed the shortest priced runner who last ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the last 10 running’s you’d have found 6 winners and shown a £1 level stake profit of £6.5, so a 65% ROI.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 15/24 (63%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Aintree – 8/15 (53%) & 7/8 (88%)
It’s not been essential for the winner of this race to have previous Aintree form, however in the last 10 running’s most winners had been here before and of those most had already won here too.
SEASON FORM
- Winners who had 3-5 runs this season – 20/24 (83%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 1-2 wins this season – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
Given we know most winners of this race didn’t win last time out we know that being unbeaten this season isn’t essential. Across both periods, having 3-5 runs has produced most winners with exactly 3 runs the highest performer.
Looking at horses who had 1-2 wins this season would be showing a 28% ROI this century, but while it’s found 8 of the last 10 winners it would be a loss maker in that period.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Only Kemboy in the last 10 running’s had NOT already won a Grade 1 but he was sent off as favourite for this race. Most winners though, had already won 2 or more Grade 1’s before now.
Honours Roll
2024 – Gerri Colombe (FR)
2023 – Shishkin (IRE)
2022 – Clan Des Obeaux (FR)
2021 – Clan Des Obeaux (FR)
2019 – Kemboy (FR)
2018 – Might Bite (IRE)
2017 – Tea For Two (GB)
2016 – Cue Card (GB)
2015 – Silviniaco Conti (FR)
2014 – Silviniaco Conti (FR)
2013 – First Lieutenant (IRE)
2012 – Follow The Plan (IRE)
2011 – Nacarat (FR)
2010 – What A Friend (GB)
2009 – Madison Du Berlais (FR)
2008 – Our Vic (IRE)
2007 – Exotic Dancer (FR)
2006 – Celestial Gold (IRE)
2005 – Grey Abbey (IRE)
2004 – Tiutchev (GB)
2003 – First Gold (FR)
2002 – Florida Pearl (IRE)
2001 – First Gold (FR)
2000 – See More Business (IRE)