Eleven hurdles are taken over 2m4f in the feature Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle, which is run on Thursday 3rd April, 2025 on day one of the Grand National Festival. It’s a chance for the 2 milers to step up in trip while remaining in top class company.
Dave Young looks at all runnings this century and compared to the last 10 to see if I can figure out what it takes to land this event. Do the stats and trends show positive signs for Constitution Hill, who is set to line up.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be 6 to 9-years-old but probably no older than 8
- Look to the Top 3 in the market but favourites have been costly to follow
- Will hold an OR of 161+ (with mares’ allowance) but doesn’t need to be top-
- rated
- Has won at Aintree or is having their first run at Aintree
- Will have 3-5 runs this season and probably didn’t win last time out
- Preferred but not required to have run at 2m4f+ before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 8/24 (4%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 7yo – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 7/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (29%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Only 10-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century and that’s thanks to a 16/1 winner back in 2000, nine have tried since, none have won.
Six and eight-year-olds have held the best win strike-rate this century and in the last 10 but in the more recent period, six-year-olds have been the biggest loss maker to back blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Top 3 in the market – 16/24 (67%) & 10/10 (100%)
Favourites are loss makers both this century and from the last 10 as are 2nd favourites. 3rd favourites are profitable across both periods.
Since and including 2008, all winners bar one came from the Top 3 in the market, the other was 4th in the betting.
RATINGS – (Since 2008)
- Winners with an OR of 161 or more (with mares’ allowance) – 12/16 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners holding the highest OR in the field – 6/16 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
If you were to back all runners with an OR of 161 (with the mares’ allowance) or higher since 2008, you’d be showing around a £1 profit, that’s about the same amount as in the last 10 too but at least you would have found most winners.
Backing the runner with the highest OR in the field has found half of the winners in the last 10 but just one of the six before that. This is a loss maker across both periods with over a 40% negative ROI.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Last time out winners are a loss maker in this race with a loss of £11 this century and all of that came in the last 10 running’s.
Most winners will have last run at Cheltenham, but while horses dropping back from the Stayers’ Hurdle have won this event, all bar one was before the Liverpool Hurdle was brought to the meeting in 2004 and that’s the last year a winner of this came from the Stayers’ in Cheltenham.
Seven of the last 10 winners last ran in the Champion Hurdle but only four of those were winning favourites for this race and none won at a bigger price than 4/9.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 13/24 (54%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Aintree – 9/13 (69%) & 2/4 (50%)
While just over half of winners this century had been to Aintree before, more recent winners were having their first look here. It does looks like you either want to be having your first run here or you have won here though.
FORM
- Winners who had 3-5 runs this season – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 0-2 wins this season – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had run at 2m4f+ before now – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
All winners had run between three and five times this season, and most had no more than four runs. It’s a broad window, but most winners had between zero and two wins this season and only two this century were unbeaten.
Most winners had tried 2m4f or further before now, but it’s not essential with four of the last 10 winners having not raced beyond 2m1f going into this.
Honours Roll
- 2024 – Impaire Et Passe (FR)
- 2023 – Constitution Hill (GB)
- 2022 – Epatante (FR)
- 2021 – Abacadabras (FR)
- 2019 – Supasundae (GB)
- 2018 – Lami Serge (IRE)
- 2017 – Buveur D’air (FR)
- 2016 – Annie Power (IRE)
- 2015 – Jezki (IRE)
- 2014 – The New One (IRE)
- 2013 – Zarkandar (IRE)
- 2012 – Oscar Whisky (IRE)
- 2011 – Oscar Whisky (IRE)
- 2010 – Khyber Kim (GB)
- 2009 – Solwhit (FR)
- 2008 – Al Eile (IRE)
- 2007 – Al Eile (IRE)
- 2006 – Asian Maze (IRE)
- 2005 – Al Eile (IRE)
- 2004 – Rhinestone Cowboy (IRE)
- 2003 – Sacundai (IRE)
- 2002 – Ilnamar (FR)
- 2001 – Barton (GB)