This race is officially the Spa Novices’ hurdle but is known under the name of it’s long-time sponsor, The Potato race has seen 20 renewals and it’s also seen a bit of change in the type of winner of the race.
It’s also known for the number of big-priced winners of this race so I’ve looked at all runnings and compared to the last decade to see if we can find the most likely candidates.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 6 or 7-years-old
- Unlikely to come from the Top 4 in the market
- Look to runners priced 14/1 or bigger (77% ROI in the last decade alone)
- Holds an OR of 135-145 or doesn’t yet have an OR
- Placed Top 4 last time out but NOT required to have won last time out
- Likely to have been beaten this season
- Should have won at 23-25 furlongs if has already tried the trip
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 2/20 (10%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 10/20 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 7yo – 7/20 (35%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 1/20 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
More than half of the runners were aged 6 so while they accounted for half of the winners, it’s been a loss maker this century but broken even in the last decade. 7-year-olds are profitable to back blind and this is thanks to multiple 33/1 winners.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/20 (20%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Priced 14/1 or bigger – 10/20 (50%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites have a bad record in this race and in the last decade it’s been true for second favourites too. Most winners have been priced 14/1 or bigger with just one single-figure priced winner in the last 11 renewals. This century, there have been 4 favourites who were sent off 6/4 or shorter and three of those won. So, if we get a strong favourite, it should be respected.
Backing all runners priced 14/1 or bigger would have shown a £29 profit this century but it’s a £89 profit in the last decade alone. That’s an ROI of 77%.
OFFICIAL RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 135 to 145 – 11/20 (55%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who held the Top OR – 4/20 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Winners with no OR – 3/20 (15%) & 2/10 (20%)
There have been runners with Official Ratings in the 150’s and two of those won in the last decade which makes that profitable to back blind but it’s made no money this decade although it’s not lost money either.
In the absence of a standout star, most runners fit the profile of being rated between 135-145 and most winners come from there too. Despite the fact it’s the most populous range, it shows a £45 profit blind this century and £26 profit in the last decade.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/20 (45%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out – 10/20 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran between 31 and 48 days ago – 11/20 (55%) & 6/10 (60%)
Around 60% of runners were last time out winners but they are significantly outperformed by runners who placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out. Each position of 2nd, 3rd and 4th last time out if profitable to back blind both in the last decade and this century.
Most winners last ran between 31 and 48 days ago but this isn’t profitable to back blind.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 9/20 (45%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had RUN and WON at Cheltenham – 7/9 (78%) & 2/2 (100%)
Most winners of this race will be having their first crack around Prestbury Park but of those who had run here, all but two had also won here. None of the last 6 winners had been to this track before though.
SEASON FORM
- Were unbeaten this season – 6/20 (30%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Had 3 or 4 RUNS this season – 15/20 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had won at 23-25 furlongs – 15/20 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
Very few winners of this race were unbeaten coming into it, but the majority had run in 3 or 4 races this season. 12 of the last 13 winners had already won at 23-25 furlongs too so that’s now looking like a non-negotiable. 4 of the 5 without a win at the trip hadn’t run at it either.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 3 or better – 11/20 (55%) & 4/10 (40%)
None of the last 6 winners had won any Graded contest before now, although there are still more winners than not who had done so before taking this.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.