Easter can play havoc with the positioning of horse racing fixtures at this time of year and the recovery time from the Cheltenham to Aintree festivals can vary markedly. Last year, Grand National Day fell on April 13th, 32 days after the runner jumped off for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, whereas in 2022 the gap was just 24 days (15th March to April 8th). Last month, Kopek Des Bordes got favourites fanciers off to a flyer on March 11th, 25 days before this Saturday’s National.
Plenty of podcast discussions and column inches will be devoted to the significance of the gap between the two meetings and how it can impact on a horse’s chance of winning, so I thought it was time to take an in-depth look at it.
Cheltenham runners at Aintree
Looking at the last six Aintree festivals (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024), 60 winners (from 591 runners) had competed at the Cheltenham festival on their latest outing and backing them all would have resulted in a loss of £206.30 to a £1 level stake at SP (-£173.64 at Betfair SP). The expected number of winners (based on their odds) was 61.96, giving an actual over expected score (A/E) of 0.97, slightly below market expectations. Laying all these runners at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of £163.71 (+27.70% on turnover) after 2% commission.
Splitting those 591 runners by days since last run (DSLR) using the Proform database gives us the following stats….
At first glance it looks as though there was no great advantage to having a longer break between the two festivals. Grouping all those who had a break of just 24 days or less gives us 25 winners from 249 bets against an expected score of 25.17 (A/E = 0.99).
Now let’s examine those horses who ran first or second at Cheltenham before lining up at Aintree. They did pretty well, landing 29 of their 109 starts (27.61%) at the past five Aintree festivals for a profit of £2.71 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 24.02, A/E = 1.21)…
Splitting those 109 runners by DSLR makes interesting reading – the longer the gap between Cheltenham and Aintree, the greater the strike-rate…
These are the figures for those who ran in non-handicap company at Cheltenham…
The sample sizes are small, but it does suggest that horses who ran very well at Cheltenham, finishing first or second, benefitted from a break of more than four weeks.
Trainers
The following table shows Aintree festival runners who ran first or second at the Cheltenham festival on their latest outing (since 2018) split by trainer (positive WAX scores only)…
Two names stand out – Nicky Henderson and Gordon Elliott – and I’m especially interesting in Elliott’s WODHOOH as an each-way play or without the favourite bet when she takes on Constitution Hill in the Aintree Hurdle on Thursday.
At the other end of the table (i.e. those with the lowest WAX scores) things don’t look quite so rosy for Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton…
Looking closer at those three yards, this is their record with all Cheltenham Festival to Aintree Festival runners (regardless of where they finished last time out) since 2018…
…laying the lot at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of £46.12 (+44.78% on turnover) after comm. The profit on turnover increased to 68.36% for those whose Aintree run came after a break of 29 days or less, with Skelton and Nicholls mustering just one win between them from 55 runners (well done if you guessed 4-1 shot Langer Dan in 2022).
Focus on Paul Nicholls
In recent years Paul Nicholls has concentarted more on Aintree than Cheltenham and is quite happy to wait for this meeting. The following table shows how his number of Cheltenham runners has declined in recent years…
Nicholls is 11 from 106 with his runners at the past six Aintree festivals, with those who prepped at Cheltenham (regardless of whether that was at the festival, on Trials Day or at an earlier Cheltenham meeting) scoring just once from 36 attempts (11-1 shot Politologue back in 2018). He had 21 qualifiers start at single-figure odds and all were beaten. In the same period, backing the yard’s runners in Grade 1 or Grade 2 contests at Aintree, who prepped at any track other than Cheltenham, would have found eight winners from 25 bets for a profit of £15.40 to a £1 level stake at SP, almost double the number of expected winners…
…REGENT’S STROLL, successful at Wincanton earlier this month, qualifies as a bet on this angle in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (1.55 Saturday). MONMIRAL, a late withdrawal from Cheltenham (cast in box) also fits the bill in the Ivy Liverpool Hurdle (3.05 Saturday), as do KALIF DU BERLAIS in the Maghull Novices’ Chase (5.00 Saturday) and SWINGIN SAFARI in the bumper (5.35 Saturday). The Lucky 15 will come to a nice few quid!
In summary
Horses who ran well at Cheltenham (defined as finishing first or second) have a superior strike-rate at Aintree when the gap between the two festivals is longer. This year the gap is short, with the likes of Triumph Hurdle runner-up Lulamba lining up after a break of just 20 days.
Pay close attention to any Paul Nicholls-trained runners in Grade 1 or Grade 2 contests who missed Cheltenham.