The supporting races on Grand National day at Aintree include the 3m1f William Hill Handicap Chase and there are some useful trends associated with this premier handicap…
Weight rank
Those in the top six in the weights were eight from 66 across the past ten renewals for a profit of £55.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.84, A/E = 1.37).
Headgear
Six of the last ten winners wore a tongue-tie and backing all 57 qualifiers would have a returned a profit of £60.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.60, A/E = 1.67).
Jockey claim
Jockeys claiming a weight allowance have failed to register a win in the past ten renewals, though the expected number of winners was only 0.99.
Days since last run
Horses who were returning from a break of 50 days or longer failed to register a win from 37 attempts (expected winners = 1.78).
Last time out running style
Eight of the last ten winners were ridden prominently in their prep race and backing them all would have returned a profit of £69.25 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…last time out front-runners were 0-10, while hold-up horses were just two from 78 (-£60.50). Proform’s software awards points for these running styles (led = 4, prominent = 2, held-up = 0) and those with an aggregate score of four of higher across their last three races have won nine of the last ten renewals.
System
Runners in the top six in the weights, ridden by a professional jockey, with a Proform pace taking of four or higher were seven from 33 in the past ten renewals for a profit of £80.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.17, A/E = 2.21).
Grand National
Running style
Running style has also been hugely important in the Grand National in recent years since the fences were modified. Prominent racers used to enjoy an edge, but they tend to go too fast in the early stages nowadays because the fences are easier to jump and this plays into the hands of the hold-up horses. Those with a Proform pace rank of 13 or lower (i.e. likely to race up with the pace) are 0-169 in the past ten years (expected winners = 4.44). Using Proform’s aggregate pace score form the participants’ last three runs (led = 4, prominent = 2 and held-up = 0) is a good pointer, with all ten winners rated between 0 and 4…
Age
Nine of the last ten winners were aged between seven and nine. Those aged ten or older were just one from 170 for a loss of £144.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.34, A.E = 0.30).
Finishing position last time out
Five of the last ten winners won their prep race, though backing them all would have returned a loss of £11.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Prep race
Six of the last ten winners prepped at Cheltenham, though backing all 127 qualifiers would have made only a tiny profit (+£1.00). The expected numbers of winners was 3.82 (A/E = 1.57).
Trainer nationality
Six winners were trained in Ireland and four in Britain.
Sire country of breeding
Seven of the last ten winners were Irish bred and backing all 119 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £28.00…
…British-breds were just one from 138.
System
Backing last time out winners, aged seven to nine, with a Proform pace rating of four or lower would have found five winners from 20 bets for a profit of £28.00 (expected winners = 1.32, A/E = 3.79). Throw in the proviso that they prepped at Cheltenham and the score was three from six (two of the beaten horses were placed at 16-1 and 10-1) for a profit of £19.00.
I won’t be making any recommendations until ground conditions are known but Gold Cup winner INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN and Cross-country winner STUMPTOWN, both trained by Gavin Cromwell, qualify on the above-mentioned positive stats.