Three races are run over the Grand National fences next week, one of which is the Topham Handicap Chase. With the entries out, Andrew Mount has taken his usual stats-based approach to the race, outlining key takeaways below…
Stats and trends
Age
The past ten winners were aged between seven and 11, through two of the seven 12-year-old runners placed at big prices (66-1 and 33-1) and I won’t be rushing to narrow the field on age grounds.
Headgear
Six of the past ten winners wore a tongue-tie and backing all 115 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £12.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.80, A/E = 1.58).
Days since last run
In the past ten years, 72 runners lined up on the back of a break of 45 days or longer and all were beaten (expected winners = 2.28).
Running style
Unlike the Grand National, this has been a good race for pacesetters/prominent racers in recent years, with only two hold-up horses (from a sample of 193 runners) scoring in the last ten years (-£173.00 to a £1 level stake at SP). Front-runners were three from 12 in the same period (+£20.50) and prominent racers were five from 73 (+£53.00).
Horse country of breeding
Four winners (from 80 runners) were French-bred (5% strike-rate, +£5.00 to a £1 level stake at SP), three (from 35) were British-bred (8.6%, +£6.00) whereas only three (from 163) were bred in Ireland (1.8%, -£110.50).
Sire country of breeding
Horses with an Irish sire were 0-80 (expected winners = 3.00).
Market position
Favourites (including joint favourites) were 0-13 (expected winners = 1.34). Five winners started as second, third or fourth favourite (backing all 28 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £19.50).
System
Backing those who had raced within the past 44 days, who did not have an Irish sire, would have found the last ten winners (from 152 bets) for a profit of £26.50. Those fitted with a tongue-tie were six from 64 for a profit of £63.50. This angle has found seven of the last eight winners (from 53 bets) and last year’s six qualifiers included the 1-2-3 (20-1, 6-1 and 10-1) for a Tote Trifecta dividend of £2,798.60 to a £1 stake.
It’s a little early to pin my colours to one particular mast, as there are 62 possible runners at this stage and we don’t know the ground conditions but I’ve taken a look at some of the more interesting candidates….
ARIZONA CARDINAL was completing a hat-trick when landing this race off a mark of 137 last year. He’s not in the same form this time around but shaped well behind Stumptown on the cross-country course at Cheltenham in mid-December on his first run back after a wind operation and might have also needed the run when tenth of 12 at Musselburgh 50 days later. He tends to peak in the spring and is not discounted off just a 1lb higher mark.
Dual Punchestown festival winner CAPODANNO has found soft/heavy going against him all season and is likely to do better here. He usually wears a tongue-tie.
TYRE KICKER was found to be coughing and reportedly finished lame when only seventh of 14 (5-2 favourite) in the Leinster National and form figures over 2m5f-2m6f of 14222 (1-5) suggest that he could bounce back if fully recovered. Gavin Cromwell’s eight-year-old is usually tongue-tied.
VINTAGE FIZZ ran second to King Turgeon in the Grand Sefton when we last saw him and has won four of his 17 starts over obstacles on left-handed tracks (+£4.38 to a £1 level stake at SP), finishing second, third or fourth on a further nine occasions. In the March to September period his record over hurdles or fences reads 21113135 (4-8) and he could go well at a likely big price.
The Paul Nicholls-trained BRAVE KINGDOM has form figures in Britain, below 3m, of 113111 (5-6), with the sole defeat in a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Sandown won by Lossiemouth (he started as the 6-5 favourite but jumped markedly out to his left on the right-handed track).