Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
BOUGHTBEFORELUNCH (2.55 Warwick)
La Cavsa Nostra scored impressively at Chepstow ten days ago but the time was pedestrian and 6-4 looks skinny enough in the Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Handicap Chase at Warwick (2.55). I prefer the claims of BOUGHTBEFORELUNCH. Paul Webber’s six-year-old has proved consistent since fitted with cheekpieces, recording form figures of 1U3222 (1-6) and looks to be crying out for a stiffer test of stamina. All his chase runs have taken place on good to soft or faster going but progeny of Dubai Destination have a solid record over fences on soft or heavy going, landing 11 of their 65 starts (17%) for a profit of £78.12 to a £1 level stake at SP.
UPONASTAR (7.35 Newcastle)
Stall one and the return to Tapeta makes 2-1 favourite Queen Of Kalahari look vulnerable in the 6f Ladbrokes ‘Play 1-2 Free’ On Football Fillies’ Handicap (7.35), so I’m going to take a chance on Ben Haslam’s UPONASTAR (stall nine). The three-year-old showed promise on occasions for Amy Murphy, notably when a 66-1 fourth on her Tapeta debut at Wolverhampton last December. She started at 150-1 for last month’s stable debut in a mile maiden here and was far from disgraced in finishing sixth of nine, just under seven lengths behind the winner. She travelled very sweetly off a steady early gallop that day but was in the wrong place when the pace quickened and could never strike a blow. She pulled seven lengths clear of the 5-2 second favourite Extrodinair, who won at Chelmsford next time out and is rated 74. She runs off 50 today (2lb out of the handicap) and though the drop back to 6f might not be ideal she has to be backed at the early offer, as big as 50-1 in places. Haslam does well with horses having their start for his yard after leaving another trainer, scoring with seven of the 32 qualifiers since 2014 (21.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £68.74 to a £1 level stake at SP.
KNOCKOUT BLOW (7.55 Chelmsford)
Broughton Excels, the 6-5 favourite for the 6f Buy Tickets Online At chelmsfordracecourse.com Handicap (7.55), is a quirky so-and-so who likes to challenge wide of his rivals. September’s Class 7 course and distance win came when switched to the middle of the track from his stall ten draw and he was beaten under a penalty, albeit narrowly, when drawn in stall one next time (also over this trip and track). He has stall one again tonight and that could make life difficult. Take him on with KNOCKOUT BLOW (stall three), who shaped as though the step back up to 6f were needed when a close-up fourth in a 5f handicap at Kempton last time, his first Polytrack outing for in-form John Long. His sire, Lethal Force, does really well on Polytrack and backing his progeny aged three or older in handicaps would have found 20 winners from 117 bets (17.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £53.20 to the usual £1 level stake.
THE GREY ZEBEDEE (8.05 Newcastle)
Generally speaking, front runners have a poor record on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, especially on the round course (1m2f or further). However, at the minimum trip of five furlongs plenty of horses make all. Since the track switched to all-weather in 2016, front runners have a 17.3% strike-rate in handicaps at this trip (+£68.65 to £1) while hold-up horses (8.3%, -£267.32) and prominent racers (9.6%, -£255.68) fare less well. THE GREY ZEBEDEE (stall seven of 14) couldn’t get to the favoured rail from a middle draw at Catterick last time and will be happier back on Tapeta in the Betway Handicap (8.05). Tim Easterby’s grey was short-headed at 20-1 over course and distance on his penultimate start and he might be able to dominate.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Boughtbeforelunch – 2.55 Warwick (2pts win, 7-2 generally)
Uponastar – 7.35 Newcastle (1pt each-way,50-1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 40-1 William Hill, BetVictor, 33-1 generally)
Knockout Blow – 7.55 Chelmsford (1pt each-way, 7-1 William Hill)
The Grey Zebedee – 8.05 Newcastle (1pt win, 15-2 William Hill, BetVictor)
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