Top tipster Andrew Mount has five bets across four races on Friday
CONSPIRACY – 2.05 Redcar
CONSPIRACY looks well drawn in stall 2 in this 7f claimer and has sometimes shaped as though the step up from 6f will suit. Kevin Stott has an excellent record when riding one in first-time cheekpieces on turf for Kevin Ryan, scoring on eight of the 27 qualifiers (29.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £57.83 toa £1 level stake at SP.
Pace and draw are likely to be the key to winning this 7f handicap and I’ve bet two against the field. Likely front-runner GOD OF DREAMS (stall 1 of 12), who improved for the first-time visor when a 16-1 second on heavy ground at Ayr last time, and prominent-racer LADY CALCARIA (stall 6). The last-named is blinkered for the first time – a profitable angle with Tim Easterby’s handicappers on turf (the fillies’ are 5-27 in recent years, +£71.50) – and she responded well to first-time cheekpieces in August when runner-up at Pontefract.
MULTELLIE – 4.35 Redcar
MULTELLIE disappointed when I backed him at Ayr last time, though, with hindsight, the step up from Class 4 to Class 3 level was against him. His record when stepping up from Class 4 to a higher grade now reads 7544075645 (0-10) and I’m going to support him to bounce back today. Best on turf at this time of year, his full record in turf handicaps from August to October, in Class 4 or lower company, stands at 3122324117151 (5-13) and he could be in receipt of an easy lead. I may also back him in the 'without the favourite' market when those prices are available later.
CASTLE QUARTER – 7.30 Newcastle
I’ve fallen for Defence Treaty in the past but won’t be doing so tonight and with Richard Fahey’s hard-to-win-with gelding heading the market there must be value elsewhere in this race. CASTLE QUARTER did well to finish seventh of 14 over 7f here on his latest start, as he was always prominent into the wind on a day the closers were strongly favoured (first five finishers described as ‘towards rear’, towards rear’, ‘dwelt start, in rear’. ‘in rear on far side’ and ‘midfield’). Both his wins have come in first-time headgear (cheekpieces and blinkers) and though I was hoping we’d see him tried in a visor for this next outing, he does swap from blinkers back to cheekpieces which could have the effect of perking him up. He’s yet to win beyond 7f but he’s worth chancing at double-figure odds in the expectation that he takes a lead and gets cover tonight.
Today’s Best Bets
Conspiracy – 1pt win – 2.05 Redcar (7-2 generally)
Lady Calcaria – 1pt win – 3.05 Redcar (14-1 bet365)
God Of Dreams -1pt win – 3.05 Redcar (15-2 William Hill, BetVictor)
Multellie – 1pt win – 4.35 Redcar (14-1 bet365)
Castle Quarter – 1pt win – 7.30 Newcastle (12-1 generally)
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