Top tipster Andrew Mount was on the scoresheet with 2pt selection Mark Of Gold on Thursday (7-4 from 11-4) and hit the crossbar with a couple of his each-way picks – Rasheeq finishing fourth and Hart Stopper fifth. He has six more selections on Friday
FIRST EDITION – 12.50 Sandown
I’ve written the Racing Post Spotlight for Sandown’s opener and deliberately put Significantly in at a bigger price than his ratings suggest he should be. He was runner-up in a course and distance Listed race in early July but was chinned at odds of 8-15 at Musselburgh last time and has now finished second in four of his five starts. The visor goes on today and I think he’ll be vulnerable again. He was a 4-9 shot in the early betting but is already out to 5-6 and I genuinely believe he could go off as the second favourite behind FIRST EDITION, 6-4 in my tissue. One of the firms went 4-1 last night about Clive Cox’s colt but there’s still some juice in the generally available 2-1. He ran a solid race over course and distance on his debut, finishing fourth to Politics and the form was boosted when the runner-up went one better next time. He clocked a good speed figure in the process and should know more today.
CLIFFCAKE is also worth a bet. He showed useful form on turf over 6f, shaping as though the drop to 5f would suit when third at Newmarket on his second start. He only finished fifth over this trip at Lingfield on the all-weather next time but ducked up the inside to challenge where the surface was deepest.
SWEET CELEBRATION - 1:10pm Doncaster
SWEET CELEBRATION did something unusual last October – she was a rare Kempton all-weather winner for her sire, scoring by eight lengths at 7-1. She followed up at the same venue (2-1) 16 days later and added a Newcastle victory on her return to action in June. Progeny of Excelebration have a poor overall strike-rate on the all-weather, winning just 35 of their 486 starts (7.2%) for a huge loss of £252.79 to a £1 level stake at SP. At Kempton only their record is just 4-88 (4.6%). Any Excelebration offspring who show form at Kempton can usually be followed when they return to turf, with Alan King’s Just In Time being the best example. He was his sire’s first winner at the track – scoring off a mark of 65 in September 2017 – and went on to record four turf wins, latterly off a 29lb higher mark. Sweet Celebration went down narrowly in second place at York in July on her return to turf, despite the good to soft going being slower than ideal, and can be forgiven her Newbury defeat ten days later as the race probably came too soon (she also hung right-handed). She looks massively over-priced for a horse who has finished second (10-1, 9-1 and 9-1) in three of her four turf starts and I’m splitting my stake between a win bet and a bet without the short-priced favourite.
SLEEPING LION – 1.40 Doncaster
We can bet all of James Fanshawe’s runners at Doncaster and make a profit, with the Newmarket handler sending out 44 winners from 244 runners since 2005 (18% strike-rate) for a profit of £59.23 to a £1 level stake at SP. Fanshawe likes his horses to be ridden from off the pace, tactics that are usually favoured at Doncaster, especially on the round course. SLEEPING LION came late under Jamie Spencer to win this race last year and he’s on board for the first time since. He was a shade disappointing when we backed him at Ascot last time, finishing a five-length third, but he reportedly lost a shoe that day and coming back in trip from two miles won’t harm his chances.
GHALYOON – 2.10 Doncaster
It was a big advantage to race up with the pace in the 7f Doncaster handicap won by Magical Wish on August 15th, the 18-1 winner made all and the third, fourth and fifth were described as ‘prominent, close up 2f out’, ‘tracked leaders’ and ‘tracked leaders’. Neck runner-up GHALYOON (‘took keen hold towards rear’) was the outlier, running a huge race on his first start since wind surgery and first for 13 months. He only had two runs in 2019, finishing second to Nazeef (now rated 116) at Newmarket and beating Posted (now rated 105) at Salisbury. He's only gone up 1lb to a mark of 88 for that comeback run and should have the race run to suit this time.
MEASURE OF MAGIC - 2:40pm Doncaster
MEASURE OF MAGIC, third to subsequent Lowther winner Miss Amulet in a 5f Listed race at Naas in early August was probably unsuited by the step up to 6f when only seventh in the valuable Ballyhane Stakes at the same venue 20 days later but the draw played an even bigger role in her defeat. Drawn in stall 3 of 19, she swept into lead on the far side just over a furlong out but was swamped by those who raced centre to nearside (first three drawn 17, 10 and 19). She drops back to her optimum 5f trip here and makes each-way appeal at double-figure odds.
TODAYS BEST BETS
First Edition – 2pts win – 12.50 Sandown (2-1 generally)
Cliffcake – 0.5pt each-way – 12.50 Sandown (10-1 generally)
Sweet Celebration – 1pt win - 1.10 Doncaster (22-1 generally)
Sweet Celebration – 1pt win without Almareekh (8-1 Sky Bet is the only offer so far, though most other firms will price up later)
Sleeping Lion – 1pt each-way – 1.40 Doncaster (5-1 generally)
Ghalyoon – 1.5pts win – 2.10 Doncaster (11-4 generally)
Measure Of Magic – 1pt each-way – 2.40 Doncaster (18-1 Unibet, 16-1 bet365, 14-1 generally)
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