Top tipster Andrew Mount has three selections for Friday’s racing, all at double-figure odds
MOSAKHAR – 4.45 Newmarket
Newmarket is going to be fun and games today, as there’s a tailwind of over 40mph forecast and the ground, described as good, good to soft in places, at 6.30am could be soft or heavy by this afternoon depending on which weather website you look at. The GoingStick suggests the ground is slowest down the middle of the track but with the stalls in the centre it’s anyone’s guess as to whether they head far side (favouring low draws), come stands’ side (favouring high draws) or just stay down the middle. I’m expecting the runners to migrate more towards the stands’ side rail and will be looking for high-drawn prominent racers.
One of those who looks overpriced is MOSKHAR (stall 9 of 9) in the 1m1f handicap that closes the card. Ollie Pears was very bullish about this one’s future after his comfortable Southwell maiden win last November and he followed up in similar fashion on his handicap debut (also on Fibresand) two months later. He got trapped on the inside and lost ground at a crucial stage when bidding for a Southwell hat-trick in early February, doing well to keep on into second place after looking dure to drop out of the back of the TV.
We didn’t see him until the end of August when he was a highly respectable 33-1 fifth at Redcar, beaten by about five lengths. The winner, Scottish Summit, scored here yesterday, third-home King Ragnar has placed twice since and the sixth, Garden Oasis, won at Pontefract last week. The stable is 0-20 this month but most were big prices and the expected wins from that 20-runner sample was just 1.05. The time of that Redcar race was quick – he has the third-best last-time out speed figure according to Raceform – and the early 40-1 looks way too big, especially if they come stands’ side, as he’s starting closest to the rail.
KIND REVIEW & BUCCANEERS VAULT - 8.30 Newcastle
KIND REVIEW seems happiest on tracks with stiff uphill finishes, recording form figures of 3311 (2-4). All those runs came over 7f-1m but he ran a good race over 6f at Redcar recently, finishing third of 15 at 33-1. He was only seventh when favourite over the same trip and track last time but probably went off too hard, helping to set the race up for the closers.
BUCCANEERS VAULT, two places ahead of Kind Review when fifth in that Redcar race, challenged wider than ideal and could keep on into a place here. He has a superior strike-rate on turf but his sole all-weather success came over course and distance. In fact, he’s only had two runs on synthetics in today’s grade (Class 5) – that win and a close-up third. Lats month’s fifth to My Style in the Grey Horses Handicap at Newmarket has worked out well and he’s 4lb lower here.
Today’s Best Bets
Mosakhar – 1pt each-way – 4.45 Newmarket (33-1 generally)
Kind Review – 0.5pt each-way – 8.30 Newcastle (12-1 generally)
Buccaneers Vault – 1pt each-way – 8.30 Newcastle (18-1 William Hill, BetVictor)
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