The Flat turf season is back! Top tipster Andrew Mount has some strong draw trends for the meeting at Naas on Monday, with three bets at juicy odds
The Irish Flat turf season gets underway at Naas on Monday and trainer Fozzy Stack can usually be relied upon to hit the ground running. Since taking over the licence from his father, he’s sent out ten winners from 53 runners on turf in March and April for a profit of £13.09 to a £1 level stake at SP. If we’d only bet the yards younger horses (two and three-year-olds) we would have found eight winners from 27 runners (29.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £32.02.
Today’s only qualifier is SWEETTASTEOFLOVE, first reserve in the 7f Naas Nursery Of Champions Maiden (2.30). He’s twice finished well held on turf and Polytrack but will be worth a speculative interest if he gets in.
Fozzy Stack also has a runner in the 6f Naas Racecourse Launches The 2020 Irish Flat Season Handicap (3.00) – Starlite Dancer – but stall 10 of 14 could prove troublesome for the four-year-old. Low draws dominated last year, with the first three home drawn one, three and two of 16. In 2018, the three lowest draws also filled the first three places in a field of nine runners and in 2017 the winner and runner-up came from stalls three and one of 19, with the forecast paying over £312.00. We only had 11 handicaps over trip and track last season and six of them were won by one of the three lowest stalls. The bias seems strongest in the early season and with the pace low from Dark Vader (stall two) and the hard-to-win-with Royal Canford (stall three) it should pay to back something drawn towards the far side. Step forward SENDMYLOVETOYOU (stall one), who won a 23-runner maiden at the Curragh on her juvenile debut. She returned from a 51-day break to finish a close-up fourth (also at the Curragh) on her handicap debut and can be forgiven her subsequent Navan defeat, as she raced on the unfavoured far side and may have found that run, just ten days after the Curragh, coming too soon.
There’s plenty of early pace on offer in the 7f Naas Racecourse Business Club Madrid Handicap (3.30) and I wouldn’t rule out anything drawn high now we’re on the round course. Since the start of the 2014 season we could have backed all runners drawn 12 or higher in course and distance handicaps and made a healthy profit (11 winners from 75 qualifiers, +£78.48). Only two of those winners (from 48 runners) were described as ‘held up’ whereas nine (from a sample of just 25) raced prominently.
CAMACHITA (stall 14 of 14) was only fourth of five in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on her final juvenile outing but that was an odd race – the track was strongly favouring pace and the order never changed throughout, with a 33-1 shott making all. She’d won well in a 7f Dundalk maiden on her penultimate start and has only gone down narrowly from a poor draw at Fairyhouse on her handicap debut.
Today’s Best Bets
Sweettasteoflove – 0.5pt each-way – 2.30 Naas (33-1 generally)
Sendmylovetoyou – 1pt each-way – 3.00 Naas (9-1 generally)
Camachita – 0.5pt each-way – 3.30 Naas (11-1 generally)