Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
NUTS WELL (2.30 Carlisle)
NUTS WELL has a stiff task at the weights in the two-mile Weatherbys Hamilton Graduation Chase (2.30) – he carries the same weight as Hell’s Kitchen but would be getting 22lb off that rival were this a handicap – but he’s still worth chancing to very small stakes. Hell’s Kitchen is zero from three on his seasonal debuts and could be vulnerable back from a break, Chesterfield hails from the Seamus Mullins yard who have gone 112 days since a winner and Midnight Shadow represents another out of form stable, that of Sue Smith. Nuts Well is talented on his day, especially when given a small field. His record over 2m-2m1f in fields of seven or fewer runners reads 1123221211P2F45 (5-15), improving to 112212 (3-6) in Class 3 company. Today’s race is a Class 2 but he won this two years ago (albeit when it was worth considerably less to the winner) and he was only a 9-1 shot last year when a bad mistake put him out of contention. His jumping has always given cause for concern – hence the need for a small field – but he could surprise at big odds if some of his more fancies rivals underperform.
PURPLE KING failed in his hat-trick bid when only ninth to the progressive Sebastopol in a valuable Class 3 handicap hurdle at Wincanton last time but that was his first run for over 11 weeks and he still has the second best last time out speed figure despite going down by 24 lengths. He drops back down to Class 4 company in the Like Racing TV On Facebook Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at Kempton (3.50) and would be favourite in my tissue, not the 11-2 fifth choice.
I want to save on Colin Tizzard’s CATCH THE CUBAN, as the trainer has a 100% strike-rate with three-year-olds in handicap hurdles – the three previous qualifiers scoring at odds of 17-2, 7-4 and 13-2.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
NUTS WELL – 2.30 Carlisle (0.5pt each-way, 20-1 Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor)
Purple King – 3.50 Kempton (1pt each-way, 11-2 William Hill, bet365, BetVictor)
Catch The Cuban – 3.50 Kempton (0.5pt each-way, 4-1 generally)