Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
ECONOMIC CRISIS (2.55 Musselburgh)
Alan Berry’s veteran mare struggles away from Hamilton and Musselburgh but her handicap record at these two venues, in Class 5 or lower company and after a recent outing (28 days or sooner), is ten wins from 35 starts for a profit of £40.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. On good to soft or softer going only, her record under these conditions improves to 11321411125121661 (9-17), including Musselburgh figures of 21211 (3-5). She looks overpriced in the 5f Follow RacingTV @racingtv on twitter Handicap (2.55).
ROBSDELIGHT (4.55 Yarmouth)
The three previous winners of Yarmouth’s Optimist Designs Ltd Handicap (4.55) were drawn high (stall 11 of 12, seven of nine and nine of nine) and with the forecast crosswind hitting the low-drawn runners first in this straight-mile contest it might help to race more towards the stands’ side rail. We’ve had 18 course and distance races of eight or more runners this year and stalls one, two and three have a combined record of just one winner from 54 runners, further adding weight to the case for those drawn high. Two of the front three in the betting are drawn very low and I’m going to take them on with ROBSDELIGHT (stall eight of 12 once adjusted for the non-runners). Gay Kelleway’s four-year-old only had three runs on soft ground, finishing second on each occasion, including at 66-1. His stamina remains unproven but he’s 6lb lower than when runner-up in a Class 4 handicap at Newbury last autumn. He’s ridden by a very inexperienced apprentice but there’s compensation in the double-figure quotes.
BEAUTY OF DEIRA (5.10 Windsor)
In-form Hugo Palmer has a 25 from 157 record with his handicap debutants on turf (16% strike-rate, +£18.35) and BEAUTY OF DEIRA can take a step forward in the Sky Sports Racing On Virgin 535 Fillies’ Handicap (5.10). Runner-up on soft ground at Newbury and on the all-weather at Chelmsford on her first two starts, she had little chance at Thirsk next time as she raced round the inside where the ground was slowest. That race has thrown up plenty of winners and an opening mark of 76 looks workable.
Progeny of Lethal Force have won just three of their 81 starts at Wolverhampton (3.7% strike-rate) for a loss of £69.60 to a £1 level stake at SP, which is a big worry for supporters of 9-2 second favourite Angel Force who makes her all-weather debut in this 5f handicap. I’m taking her on with AQUADABRA, who has form figures over this trip on synthetics of 34112 (2-5), improving to 112 (2-3) in handicap company. The defeat came by a short head at 12-1 on her latest start and she should get the strong pace that suits.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Economic Crisis – 2.55 Musselburgh (1pt each-way, 33-1 generally)
Robsdelight – 4.55 Yarmouth (0.5pt each-way, 12-1 generally)
Beauty Of Deira – 5.10 Windsor (1pt win, 13-2 bet365, 6-1 generally)
Aquadabra – 5.25 Wolverhampton (1pt win, 6-1 Betfair, Paddy Power)