Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
MONGOLIA was added to my tracker after running third in a fast time for Richard Hannon in a 1m2f handicap on good to firm ground at Lingfield in early June, a race that worked out well. He was beaten miles at Salisbury next time but the soft ground wouldn’t have suited and he was changing headgear (first-time cheekpieces to first-time blinkers). He ran respectably enough without any headgear on his debut for Michael Appleby last time, finishing in mid-division at Chepstow, and it looks significant that he returns to Brighton where he came closest to breaking his duck for his previous yard. The cheekpieces are back on and it will be interesting to see if he reverts to more aggressive tactics as this race lacks any obvious pacesetter.
BROCKEY RISE (3.30 Thirsk)
Five furlongs was too sharp for the David Evans-trained four-year-old at Ffos Las 18 days ago where he kept on into a modest fourth. Best in Class 6 company after a recent run (within three weeks), his record under today’s conditions reads 1212572107611583 (5-16). He’s only had these conditions twice on turf previously and they resulted in a 12-1 Thirsk win and an 8-1 Windsor third. He’s worth an interest in the 6f Sri Lanka Awaits You Selling Handicap (3.30).
TWIN APPEAL (5.00 Thirsk)
It’s incredibly difficult to win a big-field 7f or 1m handicap at Thirsk from stall 1 or 2, with just one winner from 162 runners in fields of 14+ since 2010. Those drawn very low in the 7f Chestnut Room At Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Party Venue Handicap (5.00) are both priced at around the 16-1 mark which doesn’t give us a huge edge but this race is also notable for the wealth of frontrunners, suggesting that those who are ridden patiently will enjoy an advantage. Step forward TWIN APPEAL (stall 9 of 16) who did well to finish second of ten to Calder Prince at Beverley last time as the race wasn’t run to suit (he was the only one in the first five to come from off the pace). He also ran well against the pace bias when fourth of 13 at Redcar the time before and is usually there or thereabouts when granted a big field/strong pace scenario.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Mongolia – 2.40 Brighton (1.5pts win, 6-1 Bet365, 11-2 generally)
Brockey Rise 3.30 Thirsk (0.5pt win, 17-2 Betfair, Paddy Power)
Twin Appeal – 5.00 Thirsk (0.5pt each-way, 15-2 William Hill)