Top tipster Andrew Mount found winners Fizzy Feet (5-1 from 12-1) and Krazy Paving (5-1 from 100-30) on Friday and has five more bets on Saturday. Check them out and GET A RISK-FREE £10 FREE BET
SAM’S ADVENTURE (2.40 Haydock, 1pt each-way 11/2)
This race was won by a six-year-old in 2017 but that was the well handicapped Bristol De Mai off a mark of 154. Other young horses have struggled with seven-year-olds 0-15 in past ten renewals. Go back to start of the century and those are seven or younger are just one from 22. Current favourite Royal Paigalle has impressed in both starts this season but the seven-year-old has a huge weight and a slog through the Haydock mud does not look ideal.
I’m taking on the favourite with SAM’S ADVENTURE The first-named has a left-handed record of 6-16, improving to 5-6 on heavy going (according to race times not the official description) for a profit of+£30.53. He often runs well at this time of year and his first run after New Year’s Day has returned figures of 1st (10-1), 1st (8-11f), 2nd of 17 (beaten half a length at 9-4) and 2nd.
CLAUD AND GOLDIE (2.40 Haydock, 1pt each-way 18/1)
CLAUD AND GOLDIE was an eyecatching 25-1 fourth in this race last season when doing second best of those ridden patiently. He’s usually ridden on the front end – the ideal tactic for Haydock – but was perhaps reluctant to take on shorter-priced stablemate Geronimo who was a 6-1 third in that race under a prominent ride. Best when fresh, the 63-day break can be viewed positively.
THIBAULT (2.45 Taunton, 2pts win 5/1)
Veterans’ handicap hurdles, far less common than veterans’ handicap chases, still have a similar punting angle – backing the youngest horses. These races are open to horses aged eight or older only (veterans’ handicap chases are confined to runners aged ten plus) and had we simply bet all the ‘younger’ veterans, since 2008, we would have won seven of our 42 bets (16.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £25.75 to a £1 level stake at SP.
We have three qualifiers – BREWIN’UPATORM, THIBAULT and CANYON CITY. With the ground perhaps softer than ideal for the first-named, who is also reverting from fences, the bet has to be THIBAULT, two from two over hurdles for his current yard. He had a recent spin over 1m4f on the Flat at Kempton, doing well to finish a 40-1 seventh of 14 in that novice contest as he was ridden patiently in a race dominated by front-runners.
TOUCH KICK (3.00 Ascot, 0.5ts each-way 66/1)
I’ve had a very speculative interest in TOUCH KICK at an enormous price. He’s only had the two runs since leaving Paul Nicholls – falling over the National fences in the Grand Sefton before an eyecatcher in a Jumpers’ Bumper at Newcastle.
He was only seventh of eight that day but raced up with the pace in a race dominated by closers and was only two places behind pacesetting odds-on favourite Sao, who won over fences next time. We had an ex-Nicholls inmate win this race in 2011 and 2012 and he’s worth a small bet.
THEATRE MIX (4.00 Taunton, 1pt win 17/2)
The Jackie Du Plessis-trained Theatre Mix, who had fallen with the race at her mercy at Taunton on her chase debut in late October, was again let down by her jumping at Ludlow last month, blundering five out and nearly parting company with James Best. She recovered to finish a 14-length fifth and remains of interest as a chaser.
Since Ludlow's inviting fences were replaced with portable ones, this track has claimed a large percentage of fallers, with mistakes galore in that novices' handicap. Only seven of the 12 runners completed the course in a race where it paid to be prominent throughout. Theatre Mix, held up in the early stages, was creeping into contention when her bad mistake cost her any chance of victory. Her two chase RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) have bettered anything she achieved over hurdles and she’s worth another chance
Today’s Best Bets
SAM’S ADVENTURE (2.40 Haydock, 1pt each-way 11/2 William Hill, four places)
CLAUD AND GOLDIE (2.40 Haydock, 1pt each-way 18-1 William Hill and Sky Bet, both paying four places)
THIBAULT (2.45 Taunton, 2pts win 5-1 in a place, 9-2 generally)
TOUCH KICK (3.00 Ascot, 0.5ts each-way 66-1 generally, Sky Bet and Paddy Power paying five places)
THEATRE MIX (4.00 Taunton, 1pt win 17-2 in a place, 8-1 generally)