Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
ABERAMA GOLD (2.40 York)
It was a big advantage to race up with the pace on the straight course at Redcar last Saturday and, as usual on very soft ground, it also helped to race close to the far rail, favouring those drawn low. The first three home in the Listed Two Year Old Trophy came from single-figure draws and were described as ‘pressed leader towards far side’, ‘prominent’ and ‘led’. ABERAMA GOLD, best of those drawn high and best of the closers in a 66-1 fourth, was a huge eyecatcher. The Keith Dalgleish-trained colt had caused a 20-1 upset in a big-field 6f nursery at Ayr last month and has improved since patient tactics were adopted. He clocked a fast time at Redcar and looks generously priced in York’s coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (2.40).
ROPEY GUEST (2.55 Newmarket)
ROPEY GUEST remains a maiden after eight starts but he’s run some cracking races in defeat, including a 200-1 sixth of 17 in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and a 25-1 third in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York when doing best of those to come from off the pace. He shapes as though the step up to one mile will suit and is worth backing each-way at a massive price in the Group 3 Dubai Autumn Stakes (2.55).
GRACEFUL LADY has been on my shortlist for the Emirates Cesarewitch Stakes (4.10) since scoring at Newmarket in August, after which trainer Robert Eddery said “I thought she needed the showers to help her but she has won in spite of the ground”. She trailed home last but one in the Cesarewitch Trial on her latest outing but failed to settle and the ground was also quicker than ideal. She scored twice on slow ground last autumn, including a six-length Rowley-Mile romp, and the rain has arrived at the right time.
BILLY RAY could only finish ninth of ten when favourite for the Shergar Cup Stayers last time but has never run well at Ascot, finishing 16th of 18 and sixth of eight in his two other starts at the Berkshire venue. Since his debut, his record on good to soft or softer going away from Ascot reads 1612 (2-4) and he’s had wind surgery since his latest outing.
ROBBEN RAINBOW (8.30 Wolverhampton)
ROBBEN RAINBOW was only eighth of 13 in a 7f handicap at Catterick on his penultimate start but was stuck out wide in stall 12 and actually did third best of those to come from off the pace. The patiently-ridden sixth and ninth – both also drawn wide – won their next starts to give the form a boost. Robben Rainbow himself beat only a couple home upped to a mile at Musselburgh on his next outing but simply failed to last home after racing keenly in a Class 5 contest. The return to 7f and Class 6 company will suit in the Sky Sports Racing Virgin 535 Handicap at Wolverhampton (8.30) and though 0-7 on the all-weather, his two course runs have seen him run with credit (4th at 10-1 and 5th at 7-1) off much higher marks.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Aberama Gold – 2.40 York (1pt each-way, 20-1 bet365, William Hill)
Ropey Guest – 2.55 Newmarket (0.5pt each-way, 66-1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 50-1 generally)
Graceful Lady – 4.10 Newmarket (1pt each-way, 125-1 Coral (seven places) or 100-1 sky bet (eight places))
Billy Ray – 4.10 Newmarket (0.5pt each-way, 66-1 bet365, 50-1 generally)
Robben Rainbow – 8.30 Wolverhampton (0.5pt each-way, 25-1 Betfair, Paddy Power)
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