Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
HELLO YOUMZAIN (1.35 Ascot)
HELLO YOUMZAIN took his sprint figures to 121131 (4-6) when making all in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last time, a record that improves to 1111 (4-4) when fresh (after a break of at least five or six weeks). He was behind Advertise in the Commonwealth Cup at the Royal meeting but the ground was quicker than preferred and he went into that race off a break of just 27 days. He's had six weeks to get over his latest effort and can be backed to follow up in the Qipco British Champion Sprint Stakes (1.35).
In recent years, we’ve seen plenty of big-priced horses hit the frame in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (3.20). Last year, the runner-up, third and fourth were priced at 33-1, 25-1 and 40-1, we had a 50-1 fourth in 2017 and 2015’s second and third were priced at 33-1 and 66-1. I’m going to fire off a couple of each-way darts in this renewal. First up is mud lover HAPPY POWER whose five runs on good to soft or softer going have returned three wins and two placed efforts. He’s only had one run at this mile trip when the ground was suitable and he won that comfortably. He was beaten by less than two lengths into a 33-1 fourth in the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood where he had several of today’s rivals behind and can be forgiven his last-time out Newmarket fifth to Benbatl as the ground was too quick and he failed to settle in the six-runner field.
RAISING SAND loves Ascot with ten of his best 11 RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) coming here. He did best of the closers when third in a Haydock Group 3 on his penultimate start and I think his low draw could prove advantageous.
WAARIF (4.40 Ascot)
The Balmoral Hanicap (sponsored by Qipco) (4.40) looks typically tricky but David O’Meara's WAARIF was a big eyecatcher at York last week, challenging closest to the stands’ rail where the ground was slowest on his way to a 9-1 fifth of 15. He has winning form on heavy ground and wasn’t disgraced in this race last year, finishing a five-length ninth of 20 despite failing to settle. He’s 3lb lower this time around and looks overpriced at 33-1.
MISS ELSA (6.45 Wolverhampton)
MISS ELSA is a 13-race maiden but the daughter of Frozen Power has only had one run on the all-weather, catching the eye when a 33-1 fourth of 14 from a terrible draw at Kempton earlier this month. Her sire does well at Wolverhampton – sending out 18 winners from 102 runners (18% strike-rate) for a profit of £35.38 to a £1 level stake at SP – and she looks open to improvement now that she tackles Tapeta for the first time in the University College Birmingham Invades Handicap (6.45).
MANJAAM (7.45 Wolverhampton)
MANJAAM tends to struggle in big field, recording form figures of 00060006068 (0-11) in fields of 12 or more runners. When faced with smaller line-ups his record is far more encouraging: 2119121288216554645 (5-19) for a profit of £16.75 to a £1 stake, improving to 121165465 (5-11) when returned to the track within four weeks. He’s not won for a while but he was only beaten by three lengths when fifth at Chelmsford last time and may have been closer but for meeting trouble. He’s 1lb lower in the 1m4f Hardwick Badger Invades Handicap (7.45) and a course record of 212 (1-3) offers further encouragement.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Hello Youmzain – 1.35 Ascot (1pt win, 7-1 generally)
Happy Power – 3.20 Ascot (0.5pt each-way, 40-1 Sky Bet, Betfred, both paying four places)
Raising Sand – 3-20 Ascot (0.5pt each-way, Sky Bet, betVictor, both four places)
Waarif – 4.40 Ascot (0.5pt each-way, 33-1 Sky Bet, Paddy Power, both paying six places)
Miss Elsa – 6.45 Wolverhampton (1pt win, the 7-1 with William Hill was the only offer at the time of writing)
Manjaam - 7.45 Wolverhampton (1pt each-way, 12-1 William Hill)
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