Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
L’UN DEUX TROIS (3.00 Catterick)
Michael Bell has a good record with handicappers on their first outing since being gelded, scoring with 20 of the 92 qualifiers since the start of 2010 (21.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £62.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Concentrating on only the three-year-olds boosts the strike-rate to 25.8% (+£68.50) and L’UN DEUX TROIS looks worth chancing in the 1m6f Congratulations On Your Wedding Callum Sharp Handicap (3.00). He has a zero from eight record but April’s runner-up effort to Moon King looks good – the winner was running off a mark of 60 but is now rated 91 and the third has scored twice since – and the booking of Clifford Lee look significant. Lee is seven from 11 for this yard in handicaps (63.7% strike-rate) and backing him blind would have returned a profit of £16.68 to £1.
BARBILL (3.50 Ayr)
Low draws have enjoyed the best of things in the big-field sprints at Ayr so far this week and with the majority of the pace drawn far side in the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (3.50) those drawn near the stands’ side could struggle in today’s big race. BARBILL (stall 6) has never won a handicap but can be forgiven his Shergar Cup defeat last-time out when ridden by an unfamiliar jockey and is open to improvement on quick ground. He caught the eye at Newbury on his penultimate start, doing second best of the prominent racers in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes. He was a place and almost two lengths ahead of Oxted that day and he franked the form by landing the Portland Handicap off a mark of 105 last week. Barbill’s 97 rating looks workable and he’s 1lb lower than when finishing a 33-1 fifth of 20 in a hot handicap at Newmarket in July.
5-2 favourite Rudy Lewis could be vulnerable back on Polytrack, as his sire is just three from 74 at this venue and he’s drawn wide. MELGATE MAJEURE is three from three on the all-weather and, surprisingly for a son of Lethal Force, those wins have all come at Newcastle. His sire has just a 7% strike-rate on Tapeta but that rises to 18% on Polytrack and it’s possible that the switch to this surface will bring about further improvement. I also want to be with pace angle JUNIOR RIP. He has a win and a neck second to his name from two runs over course and distance, with the defeat excusable as he failed to settle and the winner got first run.
ALARGEDRAM (7.50 Wolverhampton)
Alan King’s juvenile was beaten by about 16 lengths when a 16-1 ninth of 12 in a Ffos Las maiden on his debut last month but is sure to come on for that outing and is worth a speculative interest in the Protect Your Assets Visit jc-cybersecurity.co.uk EBF Novice Stakes at Wolverhampton (7.50). His yard’s two-year-olds are profitable to follow on their second career starts, winning eight of their 46 starts in the past five years (17.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £18.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s bred to appreciate the switch to the all-weather and could sneak into the frame at a huge price.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
L’Un Deus Trois – 3.00 Catterick (2pts win, 4-1 generally)
Barbill – 3.50 Ayr (0.5pt each-way, 33-1 William Hill, seven places)
Junior Rip – 5.40 Chelmsford (1pt win, 9-2 generally)
Melgate Majeure – 5.40 Chelmsford (1pt win, 10-1 bet365. 9-1 generally)
Alargedram – 7.50 Wolverhampton (0.5pt each-way, 150-1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 100-1 generally)
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