Top tipster Andrew Mount has two bets over jumps at Aintree and Wincanton on Sunday. Check out his selections below and claim an exclusive Virgin Bet offer that provides new customers with £20 in free bets when they bet £10.
DENILIQUIN – (1.35 Wincanton, 1pt win - 7/2)
Paul Nicholls has won two of the five previous renewals of this 2m4f novices’ handicap chase and DENILIQUIN might be able to make it three from six. He showed ability over hurdles in the spring, finishing a 22-1 fourth of 12 at Stratford (beaten by just over five lengths) and is 2lb lower for his chase debut.
He disappointed at Ayr next time, pulling up when 4-1, but perhaps that run came too soon and it’s interesting to see the cheekpieces go on. Since the beginning of 2010, his trainer is 27 from 112 with first-time cheekpieced runners who finished fourth or worse on their latest outing (expected winners = 17.83) for a profit of £41.51 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Progeny of Mastercraftsman often respond well to first-time cheekpieces and it looks significant that he runs in a handicap under top weight on his chase debut rather than take the beginners or novice chase route.
BLACK OP – (2.25 Aintree, 1pt win -
Regular readers won’t be surprised to see me tip a ten-year-old in a veterans’ handicap chase once again. This age group – the youngest eligible to take part – outperform their older rivals and it was an angle that paid off with Some Chaos at Chepstow recently (9-2 from 10-1).
Backing all the ten-year-olds in these races at SP would not show a profit but backing all those who finished sixth or worse on their latest outing would. Deliberately backing horses who disappointed last time out seems a strange thing to do but the logic is simple – these runners were usually facing younger rivals last time, often giving weight away in very competitive races and are perhaps dropping in class today.
Before his Chepstow win, Some Chaos had last run in the Scottish Grand National, pulling up when a 28-1 shot. In the past 15 years backing ten-year-olds in veterans’ handicap chases who finished outside of the top five on their latest outing would have found 60 winners from 400 bets (15% strike-rate) and made a profit of £102.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. There are two qualifiers in this 3m1f contest – Un Prophete and BLACK OP.
The former hasn’t won for and would prefer softer going, so I’m siding with the Tom George runner. He fell when last seen but that was in a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown festival and he could be well handicapped off 145.
Today’s Best Bets
Deniliquin – 1pt win – 1.35 Wincanton - 7/2
Black Op – 1pt win – 2.25 Aintree - 5/2 bet365
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