Top tipster Andrew Mount had three winners from three bets last Sunday and has another three selections this week
BALLYDINE - (1.22 Aintree, 1pt win, 12/1)
Ten-year-olds – the youngest age group eligible to compete in veterans’ handicap chases – have a superior record to their older rivals and I’m happy to ignore the seven horses aged 11+ in this 13-runner contest. Eight of the last nine winners of this 3m1f contest were aged ten, yet the market is headed by an 11-year-old, 9-2 shot Sametegal who has still to win beyond 2m4f. Since the inception of these races had we backed all 10-year-olds who finished sixth or worse on their latest outing, we would have won 52 of our 344 bets (15.1% strike-rate) and made a profit of £78.70 to a £1 level stake at SP. The logic being that the market over-reacts to their poor last-time out effort, which was probably in a hot race at a spring festival against younger rivals. Activial, Vintage Clouds, BALLYDINE and One Style are the four qualifiers, with Charlie Longsdon’s runner preferred. Lightly raced for his age, he’s not been seen since falling in last season’s Becher Chase but has plenty of form when fresh and will appreciate the recent rain. Activial’s stamina and ability to handle traffic is not guaranteed, One Style has yet to win in a field of more then seven runners and Vintage Clouds, like most from the Sue Smith yard, will probably need his reappearance outing.
PERFECT PREDATOR – (2.17 Wincanton, 1pt win 9/2)
PERFECT PREDATOR was added to my tracker after his solid 16-1 fifth of 14 at Doncaster in July, where he did well to finish so close after racing prominently into the headwind in first-time cheekpieces. He was a strong ‘best bet’ at Chepstow next time but disappointed, trailing home in a 15-length seventh. The step up to 2m5f seemed to suit when a narrow second at Warwick last time and the first-time visor he wears today could be the key to him getting off the mark over hurdles. In-form Alan King’s runners have proved profitable to back blind in this headgear, winning 16 of their 89 starts (17% strike-rate) for a profit of £44.27 to a £1 level stake at SP.
HAASAB – (3.15 Hexham, 0.5pt ew 20/1)
Laura Morgan has a great record over fences when using a conditional or amateur rider who can claim a weight allowance, scoring with 13 of the 67 runners (19.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £98.63 to the usual £1 stake (+£151.71 at Betfair SP). HAASAB ran as though the outing were needed when down the field in a handicap hurdle at Sedgefield 18 days ago and went well second-time out last term after finishing well beaten on his reappearance, finding one too good when 14-1 in a big field at Catterick.
Today’s Best Bets
Ballydine – 1pt win – 1.22 Aintree (12-1 Betfair, Paddy Power)
Perfect Predator – 1pt win – 2.17 Wincanton (9-2 BetVictor, 4-1 generally)
Haasab – 0.5pt each-way – 3.15 Hexham (20-1 bet365)
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